BINARY OPTION TRADING (BINARY TRADING)

The classic WSB story - lost it all.

Going to keep this simple. EDIT: this isn’t simple and I should write a short story on this.
I am generally risk averse. I hate losing $100 at the casino, I hate paying extra for guac at chipotles, I will return something or price match an item for a few dollars of savings. I am generally frugal.
But, I somehow had no issues losing 10k in options...
How I started
I remember my first trades like they were yesterday. I was trading the first hydrogen run-up in 2014 (FCEL, BLDP, PLUG) and made a few hundred dollars over a couple weeks.
I quickly progressed to penny stocks / biotech binary events and general stock market gambling mid-2014. I was making a few % here and there but the trend was down in total account value. I was the king of buying the peak in run-ups. I managed to make it out of 2014 close to break-even to slightly down.
WSB Era
March 2015 was my first option trade. It was an AXP - American Express - monthly option trade. I saw one of the regular option traders/services post a block of 10,000 calls that had been bought for 1.3 and I followed the trade with 10 call options for a total of $1300.
I woke up the next day to an analyst upgrade on AXP and was up 50% on my position. I was addicted! I day-dreamed for days about my AXP over night success. I think around that time there was some sort of Buffet buyout of Heinz and an option trade that was up a ridiculous amount of %%%. I wanted to hit it BIG.
I came up with the idea that all I needed to reach my goal was a few 100% over night gains/ 1k>2k>4k>8k> etc. I convinced myself that I would have no problems being patient for the exact criteria that I had set and worked on some other trades.
Remember, the first win is always free.
I was trading options pretty regularly from March 2015 until August 2016. During my best week I was up 20k and could feel the milli within reach. I can remember the exact option trade (HTZ) and I was trading weeklies on it.
For those who have been in the market long enough, you will remember the huge drawdown of August 2015.
I lost half my account value on QCOM calls (100 of them) that I followed at the beginning of July and never materialized. I watched them eventually go to 0. It was another 10,000 block that was probably a hedge or sold.
In August 2015 there were some issues with China and all of us woke up to stocks gapping down huge. Unfortunately my idea of buying far dated calls during the following days/weeks after the crash went sideways. I quickly learned that an increase in volatility causes a rise in option prices and I was paying a premium for calls that were going to lose value very quickly (the infamous IV crush).
I kept trading options into the end of 2015 and managed to maintain my account value positive but the trading fees for the year amounted to $30,000+. My broker was loving it.
I tried all the services, all the strategies. I created rules for my option plays: 1. No earnings 2. Only follow the big buys at a discount (10,000 blocks or more). 3. No weekly options 4. Take profit right away 5. Take losses quickly 6. etc.
I had a whole note book of option plays that I was writing down and following. I was paying for option services that all of you know about - remember, they make money on the services and not trading.
I even figured out a loop-hole with my broker: if I didn’t have enough money in my account, I could change my ask price to .01 and then change it to market buy and I would only need to accept a warning ⚠️ for the order to go through. I was able to day trade the option and make money, who cares if I didnt have enough? After a few months of this, I got a call from my broker that told me to stop and that I would be suspended if I continued with this.
By the way, I was always able to satisfy the debit on the account - so it wasn’t an issue of lack of funds.
Lost it all. Started taking money from lines of credits, every penny that I earned and losing it quicker and quicker.
I was a full on gambler but I was convinced that 8 trades would offset all the losses. I kept getting drawn in to the idea that I could hit a homerun and make it out a hero.
I eventually hit rock bottom on some weekly expiring FSLR options that I bought hours before expiration and said to myself - what the f are you doing? I resolved to invest for the long term and stop throwing tendies away.
The feeling was reinforced during the birth of my first born and I thought - what a loser this kid will think of me if he knew how much I was gambling and wasting my life. It was a really powerful moment looking at my kid and reflecting on this idea.
I decided at that point I was going to save every penny I had and invest it on new issues with potential.
Fall 2016
TTD, COUP and NTNX IPO ‘ed I decided I was going to throw every dollar at these and did so for the next few months. I eventually started using margin (up to 215%) and buying these for the next 6 months. They paid out and managed to make it over 100k within the year.
The first 100k was hard but once I crossed it, I never fell below this magic number.
2017 - I did some day trading but it was mostly obsessing over the above issues. I did gamble on a few options here and there but never more than 1k.
2018 - SFIX was my big winner, I bought a gap up in June 2018 and my combined account value had crossed 400k by August 2018. I was really struggling at crossing the 500k account value and experienced 3 x 30-40% drawdowns over the next 2 years before I finally crossed the 500k barrier and have never looked back.
I still made some mistakes over the next few months - AKAO & GSUM come to mind. Both of these resulted in 20k+ losses. Fortunately my winners were much bigger than my losers.
I thought about giving up and moving to index funds - but i was doing well - just experiencing large drawdowns because of leverage.
2019 big winners were CRON SWAV STNE.
2017 / 2018 / 2019 all had six digit capital gains on my tax returns.
At the beginning of 2020 I was still day trading on margin (180-220%) and got a call from my broker that they were tightening up my margin as my account was analyzed by the risk department and deemed too risky. Believe it or not this was right before the covid crash. I brought my margin down to 100-110% of account value and even though the drawdown from covid hit hard, I wasn’t wiped out.
I stayed the course and bought FSLY / RH during the big march drawdown and this resulted in some nice gains over the next few months.
I am constantly changing and testing my investment strategy but let me tell you that obsessing over 1 or 2 ideas and throwing every penny at it and holding for a few years is the best strategy. It may not work at some point but right now it does.
I still day trade but I trade with 10k or less on each individual position. It allows me minimize my losses and my winners are 1-7%. I am able to consistently make between 3-700$/ a day on day trades using the above strategy. I still take losses and still dream about hitting it big with an option trade but dont feel the need to put it all on the line every month / week.
I finally crossed into the two , club. I know people are going to ask for proof or ban but I am not earning anything for posting and the details about some of the trades should be proof enough that I kept a detailed journal of it all. I have way more to write but these are the highlights.
Eventually I will share how I build a position in a story I love. I still sell buy and sell to early but I am working on improving.
TL:DR - I gambled, lost it all and gambled some more lost more. I made it out alive. I have only sold calls/puts lately.
The one common denominator in all successful people is how much they obsess over 1 or 2 ideas. Do the same. All the winners on this sub have gone all in on one idea (FSLY / TSLA ). Stick with new stories or ones that are changing and go all in...wait a second, I didnt learn anything.
submitted by jojo2021 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

# /r/Peloton Pre-TDF Survey 2020

Gentlemen, Ladies and those otherwise addressed - we know you've been waiting for a good thing, and the survey results are finally ready!
The answers were collected from you all during August 2020 with 1428 unique replies. That's a participation of 0.5% of all subscribers! That's really not too bad, when you keep in mind how popular these kind of surveys are. But we here at /peloton want to show you that this is all about presenting the information in the subreddit to cater better to our audience!
Updated after a few hours to include some more historical data the final edit that for some reason wasn't copied properly
Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2018 Mar 2018 Aug 2019 2020
Results 2013-06-12 2014-06-25 2015-08-07 2016-11-17 2018-03-06 2018-08-20 2019-07-22 2020-10-12
Replies 351 598 1395 892 630 928 986 1428
Without further ado, let's get cracking on the response

You and Cycling

1. Where do you live?

Country 2015 2016 2018 Mar 2018 Aug 2019 2020
USA 32% 28.3% 22.84% 25.32% 20.23% 24.59%
UK 18.6% 17.6% 14.70% 20.13% 15.48% 14.80%
Netherlands 6.4% 9.4% 11.50% 11.58% 10.01% 11.01%
Germany 3.73% 3.4% 4.95% 6.39% 7.84% 6.65%
Denmark 3.9% 3.6% 4.31% 3.79% 7.64% 5.79%
Belgium 3.8% 2.7% 8.15% 3.57% 5.78% 5.36%
France 2.01% 1.08% 2.88% 2.27% 5.26% 3.50%
Canada 4.9% 7% 6.39% 4.22% 4.95% 4.50%
Australia 5.2% 4.7% 3.83% 4.00% 4.33% 3.93%
Slovenia 0.73% 0.32% 1.30% 1.14% 2.14%
Norway 2.58% 1.8% 1.60% 1.95% 2.58% 1.86%
Sweden 1.08% 1.09% 1.44% 1.41% 1.75% 1.43%
Ireland 1.00% 1.09% 1.44% 1.19% 0.72% 1.36%
Portugal 1.65% 1.8% 2.40% 1.52% 1.34% 1.14%
Italy 1.45% 1.44% 0.65% 1.03% 1.07%
Largely the same picture as ever, with the US leading the way, the UK in second and then a sliding scale of Europeans countries. Slovenia continues to pick its way up the pile for obvious reasons!
World Map to demonstrate

2. What's your age?

u17 17-19 20-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-50 51+ Total
2015 2.22% 12.04% 41.51% 24.66% 10.68% 4.87% 2.94% 1.08% 1395
2016 1.5% 8.9% 40.8% 24% 12% 5.4% 5.2% 2% 887
2018 Mar 1% 7.1% 33.5% 27.4% 16.2% 7% 5.7% 2.1% 617
2018 Aug 1.7% 9% 33.9% 26.4% 15.5% 7% 5% 1.5% 905
2019 1.5% 6.6% 33.2% 27.5% 16.4% 7.1% 5.8% 2% 972
2020 1.3% 6.8% 31.7% 28% 16.6% 7.2% 5% 2.5% 1420
Pretty much the same as last year, with the usual reddit demographics of majority 20 somethings dominating.

3. What's your gender?

'13 '14 '15 '16 '18 (1) '18 (2) '19 '20
Male 97.2% 97% 94.9% 93.4% 93.3% 93.6% 95.1% 94.9%
Female 2.8% 2.7% 4.8% 5.3% 5.3% 5.4% 3.7% 4.8%
Other - 0.33% 0.29% 0.78% 0.76% - -
Non-Binary - - - - 0.64% 0.99% 1.2% 0.4%
More normality here for reddit.

4. How much of the men's season do you watch/follow?

Type March '18 (%) August '18 (%) 2019 (%) 2020 (%)
Grand Tours 84.7 92.0 90.2 87.3
Monuments 79.1 74.9 79 75.9
WT Stage races 67.4 62.4 70.5 71.7
WT One day races 73.3 59.8 62.3 60.7
Non WT Stage races 32.6 16.7 17.4 25
Non WT One day races 34.8 13.7 17.4 20.7
Literally everything I can consume 35.9 18.1 21.1 27.1
Whilst GT following may be down (somehow), all the lower level stuff is up, which makes sense considering how desperate we have been for any racing during the season shutdown.

5. Do you maintain an interest in women's professional road racing?

Do you maintain an interest in women's professional road racing? '19 '20
Yes 49.8 49.2
No 50.2 50.8
Still very much a half/half interest in women's cycling on the subreddit.

6. How much of the women's season do you follow?

The following is true for the half of you that follows womens cycling.
How Much %
Just the biggest televised events 63.15%
Most of the live televised/delayed coverage stuff 29.08%
All televised racing 5.09%
Down to .Pro & beyond 2.69%

7. How long have you been watching cycling?

How Long %
Under a year 2,95%
1-3 years 19,50%
4-6 years 19,85%
7-9 years 14,10%
10-12 years 13,81%
13-15 years 7,15%
15-20 years 10,73%
20-25 years 6,17%
25 years + 5,75%
Simplified the years a little this time, but whilst we have a fair number of newbies, most people have picked the sport up since around 2013/14.

Sporting Favourites

8. Do you have like/dislike feelings about WT teams?

Once more, 14.4% of people really don't have feelings on the subject.
Of those that do:
AG2R Astana Bahrain Bora CCC Cofidis Quick-Step EF FDJ
Like 352 213 127 770 156 116 847 724 423
Meh 775 620 773 415 889 896 310 448 700
Dislike 52 356 263 31 112 141 71 37 53
Karma 300 -143 -70 739 44 -25 776 677 370
Israel Lotto Michelton Movistar NTT Ineos Jumbo Sunweb Trek UAE
Like 135 364 517 231 101 304 925 279 383 118
Meh 740 764 626 646 931 414 282 805 765 734
Dislike 302 40 52 326 121 562 53 97 42 331
Karma -167 324 465 -95 -20 -258 872 182 341 -213
So, the most popular team this year is Jumbo-Visma, followed by Quick-Step & Bora-hansgrohe. Least popular are Ineos & UAE.
As per usual, no one cares about NTT & CCC, with nearly 81% of users rating NTT as meh. Pretty damning stuff.
Lastly, we have the usual historical comparison of how teams have fared over time, normalised to respondents to that question on the survey.
Things to note then, firstly that the Astana redemption arc is over, seeing them back in the negative, maybe Fulgsangs spring issues helped aid that? The petrodollar teams of UAE & Bahrain are stubbornly negative too, with Israel keeping up the Katusha negative streak. Meanwhile, at the top end, EF & Jumbo go from strength to strength, whilst some others like Sunweb are sliding over time - their transfer policies no doubt helping that.

10. Do you ride a bike regularly?

Answer 2018Mar 2018Aug 2019 2020
For fun 61.5% 63.4% 59.9% 62.9%
For fitness 59.3% 59.6% 54.8% 59.8%
For commuting 46% 46% 45.6% 40%
For racing 20.6% 20.6% 15.9% 17.7%
No, I don't 14.2% 12.9% 14.8% 13.6%
Still a fairly small group of racers out of all of us

11. Out of the sports you practice, is cycling your favourite?

Yes No
58,29% 41,71%
A new addition to the survey prompted by a good point last time, just over half of us rate cycling as the favourite sport we actually do.

12. What other sports do you follow?

Sport #
Association Football / Soccer 50.78%
Formula 1 35.81%
American Football 26.27%
Basketball 22.46%
Track & Field 17.58%
Esports (yes, this includes DotA) 17.30%
Rugby 14.27%
Skiing 14.12%
Ice Hockey 13.63%
Baseball 12.15%
Motorsports (Not including F1) 10.59%
Cricket 10.52%
Tennis 9.53%
Chess 8.97%
Triathlon 8.69%
Biathlon 8.12%
Snooker 7.06%
Golf 6.92%
Swimming 6.85%
Ski Jumping 6.78%
Climbing 5.72%
Martial Arts 5.65%
Handball 5.44%
Darts 5.01%
Speed Skating 5.01%
Football always tops the charts, and Formula 1 continues to rank extremely highly among our userbase. Those who have a little following below 5% include Sailing, Fencing, Surfing, Boxing & Ultra-Running.
Other cycling disciplines
Sport #
Cyclocross 22.10%
Track Cycling 14.34%
MTB 8.97%
BMX 1.20%

13. Out of the sports you follow, is cycling your favourite sport?

Yes No
61.79% 38,21%
Good. Makes sense if you hang out here.

Subreddit stats

14. How often do you participate in a /Peloton Race Thread whilst watching a race?

2015 2016 2018Mar 2018Aug 2019 2020
I always participate in Race Threads during races 2.8% 2% 2.2% 4% 2.5% 3%
I follow Race Threads during races 41.7% 36.7% 38.1% 42.1% 42.5% 38.9%
I often participate in Race Threads during races 16.8% 19% 16.5% 18.9% 15.2% 13%
I rarely/never participate in Race Threads during races 38.7% 41.3% 43.1% 35% 39.8% 45.1%
Slightly less invested than before, reverting back to an older trade.

15. How do you watch Races?

Method 2018Mar 2018Aug 2019 2020
Pirate Streams 62% 46.5% 50.2% 47.9%
Free Local TV 55.7% 64.5% 59.6% 53.9%
Desperately scrabbling for Youtube highlights 37.9% 30.2% 28.2% 24.9%
Paid Streaming services 32.3% 35.4% 38.3% 46.3%
Year on year, paid streaming services go up - the increasing availability of live content legally continues to improve, and so do the numbers on the survey.

16. Where else do you follow races live (in addition to watching them)?

Type 2018Mar 2018Aug 2019 2020
/Peloton race threads 86.2% 83.4% 80.2% 76.9%
Twitter 30.5% 34.7% 33.3% 38.3%
PCS Liveticker - - 30.2% 32%
Official tracker (if available) 24%
The Cyclingnews liveticker 26% 23.5% 21.5% 18.9%
Sporza (site/ticker) 1.89% 9.5% 10.8% 10.8%
NOS Liveblog - 6.8% 7% 9.2%
Steephill 0.52% 13.5% 10.2% 8.2%
/Peloton discord 6.5% 5.4% 7.5% 7.2%
Other cycling forums 15.1% 8.1% 7.6% 7%
feltet.dk - 2.2% 5.4% 5.2%
Facebook 3.8% 5.4% 4% 4.2%
BBC Ticker - 3.5% 2.1% 4.1%
DirectVelo - 1.3% 1.6% 1.8%
Non Cycling Forums - 1.3% 1.2% 1.2%
/cyc/ - 1.3% 1% 0.6%
/peloton IRC ~0 0.8% 0.4% 0.5%
The PCS liveticker continues to have a strong following, whilst the cyclingnews ticker slowly slides into less usage over time.

17. Do you use /Peloton mostly in classic reddit or redesign when on the desktop?

Type 2018 Aug 2019 2020
Classic 75.1% 67.2% 46.2%
Redesign 24.9% 32.8% 53.8%
Time to abandon ship. The end has come.

18. With what version of reddit do you browse the sub?

Version 2019 2020
Official App 17.9 31.1
Desktop Classic 37.8 25.8
3rd Party App 18.3 17.2
Mobile Web 12.4 14.7
Desktop Redesign 13.7 11.2
Phone browsing is very much in vogue.

19. How did you find the sub?

How %
Through other forms of reddit, f.e. /bicycling 48.33%
Too long - can't remember 38.65%
Google search 9,11%
My friend told me 2,28%
I wanted to talk about my exercise bike 0.78%
Twitter 0.5%
Lantern Rouge Youtube 0.28%

Other bits and bobs

20. Did you think back in March we would see any more racing this year?

Yes No
52,81% 47,19%
Despite the threat, we have seen racing again

21. Will we manage to fulfill the rest of the UCI calendar without further Covid-19 issues postponing more races?

Yes No
25.3% 74.7%
Sorry to you 25%, Amstel, Roubaix & a bunch of other races have falled foul of COVID-19 related cancellations.

22. When did you become aware of Alexander Foliforov?

When %
Before the 2016 Giro 3,25%
22nd May, 2016 15,55%
On /pelotonmemes in 2020 21,13%
Who? 60,07%
If you didn't know of the man, watching him demolish the Giro field in 2016 on the stage 15 ITT should help to gain understanding

23. Who will win the 2020 Tour de France?

Rider %
Roglic 52,12%
Bernal 16,57%
Pinot 9,24%
Dumoulin 7,9%
N.Quintana 2,82%
Pogacar 1,41%
Richie Porte 0,35%
We can safely say that most of us were wrong about this one.
That's not a lot of confidence in Richie Porte either, the man who was to finish on the third spot of the podium. Alexander Foliforov (0,23%) had just a tiny number of votes less, and that man wasn't even in the race.

24. What for you was the defining cycling moment of the previous decade?

We had a lot of brilliant suggestions, but these were the clear five favourites when we tabulated the results.
Honorable mentions go to the Giro 2018, which had Tom Dumoulin winning, and of almost identical fascination to many of you - Tom Dumoulin going on someones porta-potty in the middle of the stage.
Little bit of recency bias perhaps, but that's better than ignoring that this was for the last decade and firmly insisting Tom Boonens 2005 WC win was the biggest thing. Special shoutout to almost all the Danes present in /peloton who voted for Mads Pedersens WC win last year. It's an understandable reaction.

25. Any suggestions for the Survey?

New Questions
We promise to feature one of these suggestions in the next survey
Suggestions
We will try to implement this. But it will also skew results.
About the Survey
The subscribers are torn on Women's cycling, nearly a 50/50 split there as the survey showed - The moderators at /peloton are firmly in the "more cycling is better" basket, and we will continue to get as good coverage of womens cycling as possible.
Are you trying to give the moderators PTSD? Because this is how you give the moderators PTSD.

26. Any suggestions for the sub?

ALSJFLKAJSLDKJAØLSJKD:M:CSAM)=#/()=#=/")¤=/)! - Your moderator seems to be out of function. Please stand by while we find you a new moderator
The Weekly threads are great for these types of questions, where several people can contribute and build up once it is understood which information is relevant.
Our experience is that "limited" will never be so, if we're going to moderate it fairly. Moderating is not a popularity contest, but believe it or not, we're actually trying to be as fair as possible. and for that, we need rules that are not subjective. Unless you have a stationary exercise bike.
All of these are good suggestions, but remember that all of you can also contribute - The mods are sometimes stretched thin, specially in the middle of hectic race schedules. It's easier if one of you has a way to contact a rider or a person of interest and can facilitate the initial communication.
We've worked on this! The Official Standard is now as follows: [Race Thread] 202x Race Name – Stage X (Class)
This sounds as a nice community project for the after-season, and hopefully many of you subscribers can contribute.
Come with suggestions on how to tidy it up!
We have chastised all the mods. They are now perfectly trained in gender-neutral pronouns. Be well, fellow being.
If we can implement this for hard liquor, you know we will.
The spoiler rule is one that is discussed frequently - in general - some users absolutely hate it, but a majority love it. Perhaps we'll include a question in the next survey to see how this divide is exactly.
We actually do - whenever there is a matter of life or death, we think public information is more important than a spoiler rule. But at the same time, we try to collect all the different posts into one main thread, so to keep things focused and letting very speculative posts meet with hard evidence from other sources.
This is a tough ask of the internet. While we can agree that voting should be done accordingly to what insights they bring, not subjective opinions, it is very hard to turn that type of thinking around. We can ask of you, our subscribers, that you please think twice about hitting that downvote button, and only do so because of you think a post is factually incorrect, not because it differs with your own subjective opinion.
That's the primary analysis of the survey! Feel free to contribute with how you experience things here!
submitted by PelotonMod to peloton [link] [comments]

‘They are us’ – an urgent, uncomfortable call to action

"By Morgan Godfery | Contributing writer March 13, 2020
A proper reckoning with March 15 2019 demands that we take up a generations-long struggle to destroy all the exclusions that make up our society and produce the conditions we know as racism. An essay by Morgan Godfery.
This work is made possible by Spinoff Members.

1

I was cleaning out the garage the other day and found an old Crusaders jersey. If I remember right it’s their team kit from 2005, the white knight sewn into the chest and the old Ford logo printed in the centre. The jersey itself is still as fresh as new paint, a novelty purchase from when we were passing through Christchurch on our way to Christmas in Oamaru. I was a year 9 in school and a Super 12 jersey was the kind of item you had, just so you could say you had one. This is about the same time it was still acceptable to whisper things like how the white players in the Crusaders were responsible for their team’s championship success, playing their footy with brains, and the problem with mid-table finishers like the Blues were too many brown boys who only knew how to throw their weight around.
I’m not quite white-passing, but my upper middle-class accent, generally preppy affect, and not-quite-pasty-not-quite-brown skin makes me ethnically ambiguous enough that people are happy to share their thoughts about big Polynesian units, Asian immigrants, Muslim terrorists, and the Jews. The first time I remember running into entirely casual racism was in Christchurch, on the way back from that Christmas in Oamaru, when a retail worker caught up with me on the street apologising for short-changing me in store. I didn’t realise or particularly care, but years later I thought about his apology. “Sorry, I just Jew-ed you”.
At the time it was nothing to me. In high school and later in my flat at Victoria that was just what people said. “Jewing” someone was a verb for ripping them off, taking an advantage, or just a way to give someone a bit of stick. In my experience it was especially popular with the Christ’s College boys, which probably has something to do with the city’s private schools inheriting their culture from Britain’s public schools. “A Jewish boy at a public school almost invariably had a bad time,” wrote Orwell in 1945. Things probably aren’t that much better in 2020. The other day I read an old mate – a private schooler too – on Facebook joking about how Jews are useless at sport.
I suspect for good liberals this is probably shocking. This isn’t language that ever sneaks through our circles. But outside of our cosy hermetic world words like coconut, boonga, fob, wog, gook, curry muncher, towelhead, the hundred variations on the N word, and “Jew” as more than a noun are common currency. The stains from that vocabulary seep into every part of the culture and society, and nothing much has ever been done to wash it out. The first time I remember encountering deliberate, menacing racism is on the rugby paddock when a white coach was yelling at my mate on the wing “run you BLACK bastard”. I thought about that moment when spectators in Christchurch were caught vilifying Fijian player Sake Aca in 2015, screaming from the stands “black cunt”.
Fandoms like to imagine their sports, multicultural rugby especially, as pure and independent realms (“a level playing field”) absent race, politics, or any disadvantage other than skill. It’s a seductive argument, I’ll concede that much, but it’s so self-evidently false it still surprises me every time someone insists on it earnestly. Sport? Not racist? In 2012 talkback callers and trolls went after then Blues coach Pat Lam and his family for the great crime of simply being Polynesian. In 2010 former All Black Andy Haden was put through the wringer for telling media the Crusaders only recruit a maximum three “darkies”, presumably to preserve the team’s famous brain-brawn balance.
Even in the laudatory histories New Zealand rugby was, and probably remains, a notorious nexus for down home conservatives, know-nothing administrators, and out and out racists. In 1960 the rugby union sent the All Blacks on tour to Apartheid South Africa, waving the team off without any Māori players or officials in a remarkable sop to the country’s colour bar. In 1976 the national team were sent back, this time defying international calls to cut sporting ties with the racist state. In protest at the tour more than twenty African countries led a boycott at that year’s Olympics, a moral stand that should perpetually shame New Zealand Rugby. Not racist? As if.
In an ideal world the Canterbury Crusaders would study this history, carefully considering whether their decision to retain the team name is another brick in rugby’s wall of shame. The managers might consider how “deus vult”, meaning God wills it, a battle cry from the first Crusade, and “Acre 1189”, a reference to a siege in the third Crusade, are URL shorthands and postscripts for white supremacist users constructing a historiography for their neo-fascist movement. The managers might also reflect on how real-life white supremacists in countries like Brazil, Norway, and Australia are adopting the Knights Templar, the Christian warrior monks who made up the crusading hordes, and the literal white knight that was formerly the Canterbury team’s logo, as their saints.
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CRUSADERS MASCOTS AT AMI STADIUM IN CHRISTCHURCH IN 2019. PHOTO: DAVID ROGERS/GETTY IMAGES. FEATURE IMAGE: FRIDAY PRAYERS AT AL NOOR MOSQUE ON MARCH 22, 2019. PHOTO BY SANKA VIDANAGAMA/NURPHOTO VIA GETTY IMAGES
As it happens the team’s managers, after kicking the issue to a “market research” firm shortly after March 15, made the call to save the name. It’s an unconscionable decision, for obvious reasons, but the team bosses seem cognitively incapable of reasoning through the issue and its implications beyond mere “branding”. In a statement announcing the name-stay the team’s PR people wrote “for us, the Crusaders name is a reflection of the crusading spirit of this community,” as if it’s possible to just reframe the holy war using a press release. It’s a cretinous thing to do when not even a year earlier an alleged shooter undertook a massacre at the Al Noor and Linwood mosques as part of his own “crusade”.
A28-year-old man is before the High Court facing 52 murder charges relating to the events of March 15. What we know about his life is little, save the things he was curating about himself online, which in this essay I treat with caution and scepticism. But it seems clear enough the Australian citizen was an obsessive for the Crusades, scribbling references to the religious war for the Holy Land across the weapon police accuse the man of using to carry out the massacre. Investigative reports note in his pilgrimage to Europe the 28-year-old – who pleaded not guilty to all charges – made particular visits to Christian-Muslim battlegrounds in the former Ottoman Empire, apparently as a tribute to the crusading warmongers he was so keen to match.
To outsiders the obsession with this particular historical episode is probably bizarre, if not creepy. But in the nether world this man and his neo-fascist comrades inhabit they imagine they’re acting out the thesis and title in Samuel P Huntington’s The Clash of Civilisations. In his 1993 essay the American political scientist argues that in the immediate past global conflicts were between warring ideological factions – capitalism and communism – but post-Cold War conflict will centre between clashing civilisations. The West vs the rest. Christianity vs Islam. The Crusades II.
In Huntington’s telling, and in the alleged shooter’s head, the West and the Islamic world are fated to compete. Yet that competition won’t centre over economic issues like stable oil supply lines, or even political issues like the territorial integrity of Western allies in the Middle East, instead the clash is meant to happen over Islam’s apparently regressive values and the West’s progressive tradition. It’s a striking thesis, especially for the generals and politicians who were hunting for cover for their military adventures in the Middle East and East Africa in the late 80s and early 90s. But it was always a notion that was impossible to apply, reducing the Islamic world to a series of stereotypes (it never had its enlightenment) and setting it against an equally reductive West (it did have its enlightenment).
The late Edward Said, the Palestinian scholar, cut right to the heart of Huntington’s argument in identifying it wasn’t an argument at all – rather, he was “a partisan, an advocate of one so-called civilisation over all others” who maps billions of people into “vague” and “manipulable” abstractions and then presents it as a true account of the world. “Thus to build a conceptual framework around the notion of us-versus-them is in effect to pretend that the principal consideration is epistemological and natural – our civilisation is now and accepted, theirs is different and strange – whereas in fact the framework separating us from them is belligerent, constructed, and situational.”
In other words, the thing separating the Christian us from the Islamic them, to the extent a clean separation is possible at all, is history – of colonialism, of Cold War power politics – and not immutable categories like “the West” or “the East”. That the categories exist at all are a function of history and political convenience, not a universal law stipulating conflict as the only end. Yet for the neo-fascists like the alleged shooter every thought they cherish orbits this particular rock: that the entire Islamic world is one dirty blob of terrorism, rape, and invasion, and that all its more than one billion members act with a single purpose and co-ordination unknown in the entire history of humanity.
But why commit to a dichotomy so obviously stupid at all? The 28-year-old grew up in Grafton, a waterway town in northern New South Wales, and in his time on the Eastern seaboard it seems unlikely he ever actually met many Muslim people at all. In his own family’s account they were just ordinary Aussies. It’s impossible to interrogate the claim – every family thinks itself the norm and we can’t penetrate their private lives to investigate how true it is – yet the family were probably ordinary in one sense. They were unremarkable. Just another white family. The alleged shooter’s parents were in traditional jobs. Mum a teacher. Dad a rubbish man.
The people who were closest to him – cousins, old school mates – pinpoint his OE to Europe as “the moment”. As RNZ reports in his manifesto the alleged shooter recounts his trip through North Korea and Pakistan, paying tribute to the locals’ kindness and hospitality (noticing the contradiction he explains he doesn’t hate the yellows and blacks who stay in their own “homelands”). Eventually he lands in Europe, road tripping France. In one passage he despairs that he can’t seem to find an all-white town or city. In another passage his travels take him, quite conveniently, to a cemetery for the European dead of the world wars. “I broke into tears, sobbing alone in the car,” he writes, mourning the apparent Islamification of Europe. “Why were we allowing these soldiers deaths to be in vain?”
He didn’t realise that the dead he mourned died trying to kill people like him.
In 2018 I wrote (presciently, without claiming too much credit for an insight this awful) that “white nationalism is, for the basement dwelling 4chaners, mouth breathing Redditors, and Youtube philosopher kings, nothing more than a desperate search for an alternative fatherland”. That search is what drove the alleged shooter from his Australian home. “The origin of my language is European, my culture is European, my political beliefs are European… most importantly, my blood is European”. To the alleged shooter his actual home was irredeemable. “What is an Australian but a drunk European?”
In each claim is a desperate narcissism, reaching for an imaginary identity when your existing accomplishments don’t match your personal ambitions. It’s tempting to extend that psychoanalysis. The alleged shooter’s fetish for imaginary “whites” is a cover for the trauma of being a nothing, disembodied. Or maybe the urge to order and rank the world into competing civilisations is a neurosis, like stacking your knives and forks in a row. Perhaps the pleasure he takes in trolling is jouissance, a momentary transgression in the service of briefly feeling. Yet those readings are weightless if they stand alone. The alleged shooter’s interior life is relevant, certainly so for a conviction on murder, but studying the actually existing politics that shaped his positions and actions seems more important than base speculation.
In The Invention of Tradition the historians Terence Ranger and Eric Hobsbawm argue that traditions, far from the ancient wisdoms of old, are often nothing more than recent beliefs that help foster a common identity when – to borrow from Said – “organic solidarities” like the family or village break down. The inventions are easy to spot in the courts and parliament where British ritual connects the two institutions to a pedigree and past that their move half away across the world broke. In the neo-fascist movement the inventions are slightly more subtle, taking actual historical happenings like the Crusades and pick-and-mixing the symbols (Knights Templar), battles (Acre 1189), and language (deus vult) that they can contort around the various anti-Muslim bigotries.
The idea that traditions are a kind of stand-in where old connections break down seems especially apt in settler colonies where the relationship to the past and a present community often amounts to nothing more than a shopping list of shared habits and references. Gumboots as culture. I appreciate that description could come across as banal, or even malicious, but it gets close to the impulses apparently guiding the alleged shooter: the search for meaningful political connections and political community. As he saw it Australia had no identity to offer. Instead he found his connection in an “imagined community” – in violent European nationalisms – and online.
“I am a racist”, the man writes in his manifesto. His neo-fascists comrades were too.

2

One of the first inspirations he cites is Luca Traini, a 28-year-old Italian neo-Nazi who, with a 9mm glock, went on a drive-by shooting injuring six African migrants in Macarata in 2018. The racist rampage lit a fuse under that year’s Italian general election. The left went after Matteo Salvini, the League Party leader, the same party in which Traini stood as a mayoral list candidate, for inspiring his violent work. In an ordinary election a political leader would make an immediate climb down, condemning Traini and his crimes. But Salvini, best known in the English-speaking world for closing harbours to refugees crossing the Med, was surprisingly consistent. He said the left had “blood on its hands” for packing the country with “illegal migrants”. The unspoken implication: Traini was doing his patriotic duty.
The alleged shooter, watching on from another hemisphere, found a brother in arms. The two men had built their identities around all the same hatreds and had clothed their boogeymen in all the same threads. One stitch for migrant “invaders”. Two stiches for liberals and Marxists, and a needle for the “race traitors” among them. But where the twin gunmen’s hatred really met, transforming from online big noting to a real-life passion, was in protecting “their” women. Traini undertook his crime as an apparent act of revenge against the three Nigerian refugees in court for killing 18-year-old Pamela Mastropietro.
In his manifesto the alleged shooter offers a similar provocation, taking 11-year-old Ebba Akerlund’s death as his red pill. In his self-mythologising, the Stockholm truck attack, a deadly terrorist attack that took Akerlund’s and four other lives, was his waking moment. “It was another terror attack in the seemingly never-ending attacks that had been occurring on a regular basis throughout my adult life,” he wrote. “But for some reason this was different”. What was that difference? Akerlund. An innocent. It’s a vile misuse – he doesn’t care for anyone or anything beyond himself – but the narrative demands an affect, the shooter turning in his coward’s rags for a knight’s armour.
For neo-fascists it’s essential to tell their origin stories through the opposite sex. For aspiring movement leaders like the alleged shooter it’s the fight to protect the “virtue” of “our women” against “Muslim rapists” that forces their hand. For lurkers, shitposters, and like-avores it’s the feminists and “Staceys” who never recognise the genius and vigour of their own race (plain meaning: “women don’t want me”) who lead them into fascism. Santa Barbara shooter Elliot Rodger, a martyr for beta males, undertook his crimes and suicide as an apparent act of “retribution” against women for denying him the sex and love he thought of as his by right.
This, not the customary declarations of love for the race, or even the thrill of sharing the same enemies, is usually the heart of online fascism – it’s a reaction against women.
In Male Fantasies the German sociologist Klaus Theweleit argues the fascist men who fought against the Weimar Republic from 1918 to 1933, and who went on to prominent positions and a political home in the Nazi regime, were in their heads and hearts afraid of women. For the “Freikorps” there were two womanly classes: White Women, “the nurses” representing order and servitude to men and country; and Red Women, “the communists” representing disorder, whoring, and the end of patriotic men. The latter were the women the paramilitary movement were under an obligation to kill. In one speech a general complains that when “a few old girls get blown up the whole world starts screaming about bloodthirsty soldiers”.
“As if women were always innocent,” he said.
This is why every fascist movement purges women first – metaphorically and actually. In Ruth Ben-Ghiat’s Italian Fascism’s Empire Cinema the American historian describes how films under the Duce’s regime “remove the Italian woman from the colonial space”, portraying the colonies as where men might find purpose through trans-national thuggery, and attacking women’s emancipation at home as a “corrupting” force and a check on the people’s success. The alleged shooter undertook his killings with similar illusions. That he could forge a new identity in gun fire and blood, and that liberated women (and Jews) were responsible for his personal and racial decline. In his manifesto the opening line is “it’s the birth rates”, repeated three times.
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THE WELLINGTON 15/3 VIGIL HELD AT THE BASIN RESERVE (PHOTO BY ELIAS RODRIGUEZ/GETTY IMAGES)
It’s easy to diagnose the same pathologies in his comrades. Game developers Zoë Quinn, Brianna Wu and media critic Anita Sarkeesian – the victims in 2014’s Gamergate troll – were made targets for harassment for no other reason than they were women crossing the border between a man’s stuff (the spacies) and a woman’s role (sex and housework). In New Zealand the death threats against Golriz Ghahraman, our first MP who arrived in New Zealand as a refugee, are so frequent Parliamentary Services ensures special protection for the Green MP. The critics go after Ghahraman for everything from fakery (her “CV” is a lie, she isn’t a “real refugee”) to acting as part of a globalist conspiracy to wipe out the white race. It’s impressively stupid, of course, but the point isn’t the truth in the charges. It’s that an Iranian-born woman sits in our parliament.
The same trolls go for the prime minister on Twitter’s #TurnArdern hashtag too, condemning Jacinda as a lazy woman (#parttimePM) who coasts along on nothing more than her femininity (“she’s a pretty communist”). That’s hardly out of the ordinary, of course. In the 2000s print commentators were comfortable enough to throw equally chauvinist slurs at Helen Clark, using “Helengrad” for Clark as the controlling woman and “political dominatrix” for ball-breaking the men around her. The difference is today’s trolls serve their sexism with Islamophobia on top. Last year activist Rangi Kemara found a telling correlation between tweeters of Turn Ardern and tweeters of Islamophobia. The Christchurch man selling MAGA hats – “Make Ardern Go Away” – on TradeMe once wrote he would destroy “mosque after mosque till I am taken out”.
Give me the misogynist, to corrupt an old saying, and I’ll show you the Islamophobe.
Simone Weil, the French philosopher, would recognise in the turn to Europe – and the turn against women – a classic “uprooting”. In almost every country material comfort and security often rely on cutting the cord between a person, the past, and a present community: removing Indigenous people from their land; separating citizens from their homes and families in one place for work in another; and reducing people to their supposedly “innate” categories (race, gender, etc). These uprootings, in Weil’s words, are a “sickness of the soul” that leave men especially vulnerable to demagoguery. In their search for past and present connections they turn to “false conceptions” like patriotism and national greatness, and at the core of each in 2020: hatred for and fear of women.

3

What’s notable about this neo-fascist movement isn’t necessarily its reach but its mode. Online, yes, but more importantly: politically free. Other than finance, the alleged shooter had no political or bureaucratic restraints. He could post all the tell-tale things he apparently did, and it seemed neither the police nor the spy agencies would ever flag it. He could acquire the semi-automatic weapon the Crown charge him with using with nothing more than a gun licence – and the seller was under no obligation to log the purchase. And he could move between Australia and New Zealand’s practically open borders with only a passport and a straight face for the eGate.
I hope you register the irony in this. Borders were the very thing the alleged shooter was desperate to enforce against the Muslim hordes. After moving to New Zealand, ostensibly to plan an attack back home, the 28-year-old found instead that “the invaders were in all of our lands”. Even at the bottom of the world in formerly lily-white Christchurch. “Nowhere was safe”, he wrote. The alleged shooter, in a bonfire of pomposity and self-regard, actually did think himself at the centre of a civilisational struggle between the out-bred West and Islam. In the mind of the manifesto writer, massacring Muslims would enforce the borders the supposed sell outs in government wouldn’t.
But in allegedly killing the innocent people he did he wasn’t taking on a powerful soon-to-be majority. Rather, on one side is the 28-year-old with all his political and social freedoms, and on the other are the shooting’s victims who were living their lives under significant political and social restraints. The spy agencies were dedicating their resources to “Islamic terrorism”, not the alleged shooter’s terrorism. Police commit more resources to “street gangs” – that is, Māori – and barely even bother with the alleged shooter’s brothers and sisters in white power. The immigration department, as any anecdote can confirm, focuses disproportionate attention on non-white entries, and the only people who move freely between borders are people like the 28-year-old.
In short: non-white people live their lives under scrutiny and surveillance.
The government’s official response to the Christchurch shooting is to extend that scrutiny and surveillance to, well, white people. Jacinda Ardern is leading reforms to gun laws and the rules governing how online users share violent, racist, and other objectionable material. Last month the country’s top spies told a parliamentary select committee that they’re keeping watch on dozens of suspect characters. Police, even a year on, are still making home visits to destroy illegal weapons and otherwise interview lurkers and posters. The changes, taken together, rightly remove the freedom and options the alleged shooter had, and make it almost impossible for his comrades to organise.
Yet as good and necessary as those changes are some of the structural conditions that produce the racial distinctions the alleged shooter holds so dear are left intact.
In organised debating one of the famous moots is the “balloon debate”. In it each speaker, usually arguing on behalf of someone famous, proposes why the others shouldn’t toss him or her over the side of a hot air balloon in order to save the others. It’s a riveting hypothetical, placing six people in disaster’s mouth and exercising the collective choice to doom one and rescue the others. But for anyone who understands how it feels to have their apparent merits and demerits subject to “debate”, with someone else drawing up a balance sheet in red and black, it’s horrendous. The idea is we’re born equal, but after that all bets are off. This is what women, takatāpui, Māori, Muslims, and other deviations from the “norm” deal with most days.
Are we worthy?
It’s the same principle that organises immigration to New Zealand: who’s worthy? In our system the government literally attaches “points” to the world’s hopeful according to their potential for improving the lives of the hosts. Good English? Points. A tertiary qualification? Add to the tally. Assets? You’re basically in. The system’s political champions admire this approach for its rationality. Unlike the US where immigration sometimes relies on a lottery – eg the American Diversity Immigrant Visa – or just keen racism – i.e. the Muslim travel ban – New Zealand immigration is hassle-free and non-discriminatory.
It’s a self-serving argument, of course, because an immigration system where the purpose and function is defining inclusions and exclusions (who’s in and who’s out) is never neutral. When Winston Peters calls for tighter English language requirements, for example, that’s really an argument for conferring an advantage on applicants from the Anglosphere over people with equivalent skills or greater need from other parts of the world. This isn’t explicitly discriminatory, at least in the sense the exclusionary threshold doesn’t depend on a person’s race, but the impact is racist in that one group of people (mostly white) enjoy an advantage over another group (mostly non-white) thanks to nothing more than the great good fortune of being born an English speaker.
It’s a perversity. Yet this is what border systems, including our points system, do: they force you to think about inners and outers. The threshold between the worthy and the unworthy. This is one reason the refugee-led campaign to end the “family link policy” was so important. In removing the rule barring African and Middle Eastern refugees from settling in New Zealand (unless their family were already here) the campaigners saw to one of the worst racial exclusions our border system made. If you’re an optimist you might hope the other racist exclusions in our border laws – like The Citizenship (Western Samoa) Act, the legislation stripping Samoans of their Privy Council-confirmed New Zealand citizenship – are but a campaign away from abolition.
I’m a pessimist.
I suspect most people imagine borders as objects, a line in the ground demarcating our country from theirs. Yet the American southern border, as one example, is notable more for “the Wall’s” absence than its presence. The northern border is even less dramatic, a largely wide-open space with fences here and there to pen in the farm animals. In New Zealand airlines usually enforce the country’s borders thousands of kilometres from our actual line on the map. Under the Advance Passenger Screening programme carriers only board passengers with the appropriate documentation.
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A POLICE OFFICER DEMONSTRATES ILLEGAL GUN MODIFICATIONS. (PHOTO: RNZ / ANA TOVEY)
It’s another marvellous technocratic achievement, appointing airline staff as de facto border patrol agents. But like the points system the screening programme’s impacts can end up perverse and racial making it almost impossible for refugees and asylum seekers from “non-visa waiver countries” (i.e. the developing world) from ever making it far enough to lodge a claim for protection in New Zealand. The programme, more than anything else, exposes borders for what they really are – a list of biased inclusions and exclusions – and the structural violence borders perform are in whom they include (the English-speaking, the educated, the wealthy) and who they exclude (the desperate, the poor, the mostly brown and black).
The alleged shooter and the neo-fascist movement understand a struggle is happening over the nature and function of borders. This man recognised new borders – the “balkanisation of the US” – as the only way to guarantee “the future of the White race on the North American continent”. His comrades, like the neo-Nazi who went on a stabbing riot on a train in Oregon, claim their end goal is smashing the US into competing ethno-states. For them – and their king in President Trump – reconfiguring the borders, whether as policy changes to the inclusions and exclusions or new border lines entirely, is the best way to guarantee their political supremacy this century.
Are borders by their very nature racist?

4

I took my last trip to Christchurch a month and a half after March 15. I had a speaking engagement with Network Waitangi Otautahi, the local tauiwi Treaty group. I thought about putting it off. Post-March 15 the only conversations that seem urgent and necessary are about March 15. Taking up space felt wrong, and even stepping off the plane felt intrusive. The city was grieving. Even the affect was off. People were unusually quiet in public spaces. In private one person I spoke to was literally in tears. We weren’t talking about March 15 at all but she was thinking about it every day. Even that felt like I was taking up space. Am I here to grieve too? I thought about Sam Neill breaking down in a taxi when the news broke, openly weeping, and how he took comfort from his Muslim driver.
Hmmm.
I spoke, in the end. Not entirely comfortably, but an intervention of one kind or another felt right after the racism debate went from “individual hate” to “firearms access” to “the internet”. Each is its own valid connection, sure, but it felt as if all the most important connections were missing. In the English-speaking world it’s fashionable to name private, individual acts as “racist”. The intolerant, unfair, or simply racial things that fall out of people’s mouths. Like “cheeky darkies” on the 7pm telly. But it’s unfashionable, of course, to name racist systems. Instead bureaucrats and opinion-makers opt for euphemisms like “unconscious bias”, reducing racism to a state of mind and not a systemic design.
This is why I thought it important to issue a reminder, in the very small way that I could: racism is a social relation. It’s the principle governing the relationship between coloniser – the people who took this land and built the institutions to control and profit from it – and colonised, the people from whom the land was taken and the institutions built to protect and exploit the founding theft. The same principle shapes the relationship between citizens – people who enjoy all the rights the state confers – and non-citizens, outsiders who must prove their worth through their contribution to citizens.
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These are the systemic conditions that produce racism – unequal power relations – and it’s what makes it so easy to condemn the Māoris or the immigrants or whoever else. When one people are up and the other are down, and the scales are apparently resistant to any remedial attempts to balance them with Treaty settlements or an increase in the refugee and asylum seeker quota, it makes it seem as if their disadvantage is a state of nature and not a centuries-long project to exclude certain people from prosperity. To the alleged shooter his victims were by their very nature irredeemable, abusing the West’s generosity, and he understood himself as enacting the same permanent exclusions his ancestors made, from the Crusades to the war on terror.
In this sense, the alleged shooter was an individual racist. Of course he was. But in another sense he was taking our exclusionary systems to their logical end.
Is there any response to savagery like this? The government’s reforms are one. I entirely support them. And yet they fall so short. People will still define their identity in different nationalisms, just like the alleged shooter did, so long as there are racist border system to enforce them. Neo-fascists will still define their identities against women as long as there is an unequal “domestic sphere”, an unequal workplace, and a society where one group – men – accumulate and exercise disproportionate power over another – women, trans people, non-binary people. That makes the struggle against the alleged shooter’s politics longer than his trial, his probable conviction, and his probable imprisonment. It’s a generations-long struggle to destroy all the exclusions that make up our society and produce the conditions we know as racism.
On my read Simone Weil’s original, vital insight is that as people and communities we find our identities in the obligations we owe – and in the obligations owed to us. In those reciprocal relationships we find meaning and purpose. In the give and take, in its delights and frustrations, and in the everyday work of making a home in these islands. This is where we find our roots, connecting to each other in different ways – whether as Māori or women or Muslims – but never excluding. “They are us” is an inclusion. They are us is an affirmation. They are us is also an urgent and uncomfortable call to action. As New Zealanders, it’s our responsibility to take on every exclusionary system, whether it’s racist borders or enduring gender roles. The memory of those who lost their lives on March 15 demands no less."
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[H] 150+ Humble Bundle Leftovers including Crash & Spyro [W] Monster Hunter: World, They Are Billions, BlazBlue: Cross Tag Battle & Offers from Wishlist

The games I am actively seeking are: Monster Hunter: World They Are Billions BlazBlue: Cross Tag Battle Darksiders III Just Cause 4 Shadow of the Tomb Raider However, I will appreciate offers for any game in my Wishlist
Quite new to trading so not much rep, but here is my Rep Link. Also my Profile
All my games are from Humble Bundle, so a gift link option is available if preferred. As they are all from Bundles, I'm happy to trade my games 2-6 for 1 (depending on the game)
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10000000 2064: Read Only Memories Aaero AI War: Fleet Command Alan Wake's American Nightmare Anomaly 2 Anomaly: Warzone Earth Aporia: Beyond the Valley Arma 2 x2 Arma 2: Operation Arrowhead Ashes of the Singularity: Escalation Attractio Back to Bed Beholder Binary Domain BIT.TRIP Presents... Runner2: Future Legend of Rhythm Alien Black The Fall Broken Age Borderlands 2 + DLC Borderlands: The Pre-Sequel (Fanatical Key) The Bureau: XCOM Declassified Butcher Chivalry: Medieval Warfare x 3 Chroma Squad Chronology Crash Bandicoot™ N. Sane Trilogy Crazy Taxi Crusader Kings II + The Old Gods DLC The Darkness II Darksiders II: Deathinitve Edition Deep Dungeons of Doom x 2 Deponia Doomsday Devil Daggers x 2 Distance Dungeon of the Endless x 2 ENSLAVED: Odyssey to the West Premium Edition x 2 Epistory - Typing Chronicles The Escapists - Base Game Fahrenheit: Indigo Prophecy Remastered The Flame in the Flood FORCED Full Metal Furies Galactic Civilizations Ultimate Edition Goat Simulator GOD EATER 2 Rage Burst Gods Will Be Watching GoNNER GRAV Grey Goo Definitive Edition GRID 2 x 2 Grim Fandango Remastered Guacamelee! Complete Guacamelee! Gold Edition Guacamelee Super Turbo Championship Edition Guacamelee! 2 GUILTY GEAR Xrd -SIGN- GUILTY GEAR XX ACCENT CORE PLUS R Gunpoint x 2 Guns of Icarus Alliance Collector's Edition Guns of Icarus Online Hacknet HackyZack Hand of Fate x 2 Headlander x 2 Hidden Folks HIVESWAP: Act 1 Human Fall Flat HunieCam Studio The Incredible Adventures of Van Helsing: Final Cut Infested Planet Jotun x 2 Kathy Rain Ken Follett's The Pillars of the Earth Kholat Killing Floor x 2 Kingdom: New Lands x 2 Lara Croft GO Magicka 2 x 2 Majesty 2 Collection Master Spy Mini Metro MINIT Mirage: Arcane Warfare Momodora: Reverie Under the Moonlight Monster Loves You Moon Hunters Mr. Shifty Mushroom 11 No Time to Explain No Time to Explain Remastered Oddworld: New 'n' Tasty Okhlos OlliOlli2: Welcome to Olliwood Orwell: Keeping an Eye on You Overgrowth Owlboy PAC-MAN 256 PAC-MAN Championship Edition DX+ Pillars of Eternity Pinball FX2 The Walking Dead Please Don't Touch Anything Pony Island Project CARS Psychonauts x 3 Punch Club Purrfect Date - Visual Novel/Dating Simulator Q.U.B.E Director's Cut x 2 Quiplash Resident Evil Revelations Retro City Rampage DX Rising Storm 2: Vietnam + 2 DLCs Road Redemption Robot Roller-Derby Disco Dodgeball Saints Row 2 x 2 Sakura Fantasy Sakura Swim Club Scanner Sombre x 2 Scrap Garden Serial Cleaner The Sexy Brutale Shadow Warrior: Special Edition Shadwen Silence Skullgirls Slime-San Small Radios Big Televisions Snake Pass Sniper Elite Sniper Elite 3 Sniper Elite V2 Sonic Adventures 2 Space Pilgrim Episode 1: Alpha Centauri Spec Ops: The Line Spyro™ Reignited Trilogy Streamline STRIDER Stronghold Crusader 2 Styx: Master of Shadows Super Hexagon Super Meat Boy Superbrothers: Sword & Sworcery EP Surgeon Simulator + Anniversary Ed. Content The Swapper They Bleed Pixels This War of Mine TIS-100 Train Valley Tricky Towers Tumblestone x 2 The Turing Test Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War Warhammer: End Times - Vermintide x 3 Wasted Westerado: Double Barreled x 3 World of Goo YOU DON'T KNOW JACK Vol. 1 XL YOU DON'T KNOW JACK Vol. 2 YOU DON'T KNOW JACK Vol. 3 YOU DON'T KNOW JACK Vol. 4: The Ride Zombie Night Terror
[W]
88 Heroes Abandon Ship Accel World VS. Sword Art Online Deluxe Edition Aegis Defenders Afterparty Age of Empires: Definitive Edition Age of Mythology: Extended Edition All Walls Must Fall AMID EVIL APE OUT Ashen Assassin's Creed Odyssey Assassin's Creed Syndicate Atomic Heart Automachef Axiom Verge Baba Is You Batman: The Enemy Within - The Telltale Series Beacon Beast Battle Simulator Beat Hazard 2 BIOMUTANT BlazBlue Centralfiction BlazBlue Cross Tag Battle Blood: Fresh Supply Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night Bloody Trapland 2: Curiosity Bloons TD 6 Bomb Squad Academy Book of Travels Break the Game Call of Cthulhu Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare Candleman: The Complete Journey Captain Forever Remix CARRION Catastronauts Chalo Chalo Clicker Heroes 2 Cobalt CODE VEIN Commandos 2 - HD Remaster Commandos 3: Destination Berlin Creature in the Well CrossCode Cyberpunk 2077 Danganronpa 2: Goodbye Despair Danganronpa Another Episode: Ultra Despair Girls Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony Darksiders Genesis Darksiders III DeathComing Death's Gambit DECEIVER DEEP SPACE WAIFU: WORLD DEMON'S TILT Descent: Underground Desperados III Destroy All Humans! Devil May Cry 5 Disco Elysium DISSIDIA FINAL FANTASY NT Free Edition Divinity: Original Sin 2 Divinity: Original Sin Enhanced Edition DOA5LR Story Mode Donut County DOOM Eternal Drink More Glurp DUSK Dying Light 2 Dying Light - The Following DYNASTY WARRIORS 7: Xtreme Legends Definitive Edition DYNASTY WARRIORS 9 DYO ECHO ECHOPLEX ELEX Enigma Prison Escape the Loop EVERSPACE 2 Exo One Extinction Factorio Far Cry New Dawn FAR: Lone Sails FINAL FANTASY VIII - REMASTERED FINAL FANTASY X/X-2 HD Remaster Garbage Day Generation Zero Gloomhaven Gorogoa GreedFall Grim Dawn - Forgotten Gods Expansion GTFO Hades HALF DEAD 2 Halo: The Master Chief Collection Hand of Fate 2 - Outlands and Outsiders HellSign Hob Hollow Knight - Gods & Nightmares Hollow Knight: Silksong Hot Lava House Flipper HYPERGUN Indie Pogo Ion Fury Jettomero Junkyard Simulator Jurassic World Evolution Just Cause 4 Katamari Damacy REROLL Katana ZERO Keyboard Sports - Saving QWERTY Killer Instinct Kingdom Rush Frontiers Kingdom Rush Origins Last Man Sitting LEGO City Undercover LEGO DC Super-Villains LEGO MARVEL Super Heroes 2 Lethal League Blaze Life is Strange 2 Lightmatter Lingotopia Lonely Mountains: Downhill Lost Ember LUMINES REMASTERED Magic 2015 Manifold Garden Marble It Up! Marvel vs. Capcom: Infinite Megaquarium Mekazoo Monster Crown MONSTER HUNTER: WORLD Monster League Morphies Law Mortal Kombat 11 Mount Your Friends 3D: A Hard Man is Good to Climb Mugsters My Friend Pedro Night in the Woods Nightmare Reaper Nimbatus - The Space Drone Constructor Nine Parchments No Man's Sky Noita Nother OCTOPATH TRAVELER Omensight Onechanbara Z2: Chaos OVERKILL's The Walking Dead Overload Oxygen Not Included Parkasaurus Parkitect Perception Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trilogy / 逆転裁判123 成歩堂セレクション Photographs Pinball FX3 - Universal Classics Pinball Planet Zoo Pneuma: Breath of Life Positron Praey for the Gods Prey - Mooncrash Production Line Project Hospital Project Warlock Project Zomboid Pummel Party Puyo Puyo Tetris RAGE 2 ReCore: Definitive Edition Regular Human Basketball Re:Legend Resynth ReThink | Evolved 2 Retimed Rifter Risk of Rain 2 Rocksmith 2014 - Disturbed Song Pack II Sakura Gamer Salt and Sanctuary Sam & Max Hit the Road Samurai Gunn Secrets of Grindea Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice Semblance SENRAN KAGURA Burst Re:Newal SENRAN KAGURA Peach Ball SENRAN KAGURA Peach Beach Splash Serious Sam 4 SG/ZH: School Girl/Zombie Hunter Shadow of the Tomb Raider Shakedown: Hawaii Sherlock Holmes: Crimes and Punishments Sid Meier's Civilization: Beyond Earth SOULCALIBUR VI - DLC2: 2B Space Pirates and Zombies 2 Spinnortality SpyParty SteamWorld Dig 2 Subverse Sunless Sea - Zubmariner Sunless Skies Super Bomberman R Super Meat Boy Forever SUPERHOT: MIND CONTROL DELETE SWORDY System Shock: Adventure Alpha Tech Support: Error Unknown TEKKEN 7 - Season Pass 2 Telling Lies Temtem The Binding of Isaac: Afterbirth+ The Council The Dark Pictures Anthology: Man of Medan The Document of Midnight Animal The Elder Scrolls Online - Morrowind The Hex The Impossible Game The Messenger The Outer Worlds The Room Three The Spectrum Retreat The Universim They Are Billions Tick Tock: A Tale for Two Titan Quest: Atlantis Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon Wildlands Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell Blacklist Totally Accurate Battle Simulator Trackmania² Lagoon TrackMania² Valley Trials Rising Ultimate Marvel vs. Capcom 3 Unheard Untitled Goose Game VALKYRIE DRIVE -BHIKKHUNI- Vampire: The Masquerade - Bloodlines Vampire: The Masquerade - Bloodlines 2 Vampyr WARRIORS OROCHI 4 - 無双OROCHI3 We Happy Few We Were Here Together What the Dark Keeps Wolfenstein: Youngblood Wreckfest Yakuza Kiwami Yakuza Kiwami 2 Yu-Gi-Oh! Legacy of the Duelist Zoo Tycoon
submitted by TTTBradshaw to SteamGameSwap [link] [comments]

Significant Dualities, in Nature and in Societies

Caution: This article is a long read, and goes in many directions. For the curious mind, it's a lively mindfield to explore and come back again and again. If you prefer poster images, never mind.
Some links occur here mostly because they're interesting, and somehow are part of a duality.
For me, duality means at least two things which are associated somehow, but considered separately are different. We don't need to count above 2, like say 'polyality' because obviously the idea of divergence, or fork, is able to have many 'tines' or separate paths. (See Tuning Fork, below.) We don't have time to cover every possibility, so let's just stick with 2, the most simple case of multiple. (See Rhizome Philosophy for an interesting alternative to this binary association structure. Also the paragraph titled "Association Schemes" in Exploiting the Pyramid.)
We aren't considering pairs of identicals, like dual wheels, two of exactly the same thing, but maybe if there is a small difference, or doubtful meaning between similar things (see dual internal organs under anatomy, below).
Sometimes the association between things is not obvious, in which case we better explain, but most dualities are obviously two tined. Let it go at that.
Tuning Fork, a synchronous dynamic opposition, and also an acoustic device having a dual nature similar to both stringed eg. Piano and other percussion devices (eg. Glockenspiel. See also disambiguation of similar percussion instruments. Tuning forks have the advantage of needing no containment structure because their duality counter-balances the vibrations. All the other devices have a single resonator for each tone.
Dualism (disambiguation index) | wkpd
Fake Word Similarities Dual not confused with duel Dual not confused with do all. (Obvious.)
Duality expressions
flip side
double edged sword
Janus faced
dark side-- bright side
balance equilibrium equation
opposites (word list)
positive-negative (photography))
bilateral symmetry
mirror
images, real vs virtual
paired symbols
yin-yang (principle) yin-yang (history)
Dual Obelisks, ancient Egypt (had different inscriptions on each)
duality as found on tumblr (index)
hypocrisy vs sincerity (philosophical mirror) hypocrisy sincerity sin cere means without wax, not a crackpot idea
Being a Leftist Means never having to Say You’re Sorry title of this essay inspired by a 1970s witticism
dual-process theory of human intelligence
The Balance (disambiguation index) | wkpd, in the physical, a two-sided weight comparator, in the abstract, the equation... possibly the most significant model (3) of reality ever conceived.
Exercising Equations, For Example...
How can things fly, and boats sail upwind?
Bernoulli's two-path model of lift vs Newton's Reaction of air-inertia model of force
Previous link models a lifting surface as a flat-plane and air is deflected in a single direction. Modeling a lifting surface as an arc also works, but no simple reference explaining this is found. So I'm going to do it, very briefly...
Imagine a wing, or sail, is a simple arc, and a small sample of air passing by it is like a stone on a string.. Air has mass, therefore thrusting it around a curve causes a reaction force opposite the center of the curve (aka lift.)
This is an important example because large commercial aircraft wings are complex mechanical devices that change shape depending on speed (scroll down to Flaps). At low speed, the wing simulates an arc, and a sail is made loose to form a larger curve. (Sailing in light airs, reduce tension on halyards, while a tight (more flat) sail configuration is called 'close-hauled').
Binary Thinking, True or False?
What is it? | qra
Binary opposition WARNING: Cultural Marxism, deconstruction
False dilemma, an obstacle to effective negotiation, in which nuances and concessions should be considered, not "take it or leave it" ultimatums
GOOD, BAD, UGLY? 2015 | stnfd
Example: Evolution vs Religious Tradition (Creationism) Purpose or no Purpose, that's the question: Darwinism: Survival without Purpose 2007 Another example from Mark Driscoll
Biblical Christianity requires black-and-white thinking because it is dualistic... Mainstream culture refuses to allow any categories because that would mean making distinctions, which ultimately ends in making value judgments. (which is DISCRIMINATION!) For the record, I am in favor of discrimination, not by race, but by behavior record. Discriminating Evolution from Intelligent Design (the flaws clause) 7 min
Boolean Logic
technical: Bifurcation theory
Binary Options
Nature
Wave–particle duality | wkpd Wave–particle duality (article index) | scidly Light and Sound CGI video, wave-particle duality 25 min
position vs momentum (uncertainty principle)
observer vs object observed (anthropic principle)
Energy-mass duality | wkpd
Mutual-Influence Orbital Oscillation Patterns
Mass Duality vs Time, Effects
Lunacy; tidal lock one side seen, one side hidden
Orbital resonance
Example: Earth-Luna orbit each other; Luna's mass is 0.0123 of earth's. Earth oscillates due to Luna, but radius of orbit is less than Earth's radius, so it's less obvious. See Barycenter. See also NASA, Moon, Luna's orbit, and Libration. https://music.stackexchange.com/questions/24243/what-is-the-difference-between-a-xylophone-a-glockenspiel-marimba-a-xylorimba#24245
Earth Mother Goddess Duo: Gaia/Medea Hypothesis
anatomy
Internal Organ Duals, Why? What are paired organs? (lists) 2018 | qra Symmetry Why do we have two of some organs, but not all? 2014 | stkxchg
Respiratory-Circulatory System Overlap (dual function) Venous Blood forced by thoracic-ambient pressure differential... Heart and lungs are together in the pulmonary cavity, experience simultaneous pressure fluctuations (scroll down to 'Respiratory Pump'), thus fluid influx and egress (air is a fluid). Respiration includes blood circulation, the respiratory and circulatory systems are inextricably linked.
Note that previous articles omit hydrostatic pressure which influences venous circulation (fluid pressure is higher at lower elevations, depending on density; eg. Hg (used in barometers) is 13.534g/cm3, blood is 1.06 g/cm3 (slightly more than water)). When you experience tingling, numbness or swelling due to inactivity, raise the inactive limbs above heart, gravity will help the circulation. Also, dizziness might be due to pressure variations in brain, such as suddenly standing upright after kneeling for awhile. Move more slowly.
Notice that we have only indirect control over heart-rate. We can increase physical activity (especially respiration) voluntarily, then the autonomous nerve system takes care of the rates.
Sex
Origin of Sex
Reproduction, Evolution of
When Did Sex Become Fun? 2016 | spns
A Brief History of Human Sex 2006 | lvsci
Chromosome Duality predicts longevity, reliably Scientists Discover Why women live longer Petrov 8 min
The sex with the reduced sex chromosome dies earlier: a comparison across the tree of life Mar.2020
polarity
electrical
chemical
Polarization (waves) see also Introduction to Polarized Light
magnetic geomagnetic pole
geographic
antipodes
Bi-polar Disorder (mental health)
Dysphoric Mania in Bipolar Disorder (reality IS bipolar, see previous links)
dysphoria is a profound state of unease or a general dissatisfaction with life
split personality, eg. Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde
Euphoria vs Dysphoria
psycho-active stimulants create euphoria 10 BEST LEGAL EUPHORIC HIGH HERBS 2017 See also 4 Most Euphoric Nootropics
What are Nootropics?
What Is Rejection Sensitive Dysphoria?
Society
DUO - Animation Short Film (Fr) 2014 - GOBELINS (for some performance artists, life is a matter of trust) 3.5 min
Dual inheritance theory
Moral Duality
Bi-polar Disorder (social inequality), topic continues under heading "Double Standard of Morality" (scroll down)... A simple two-tier arrangement of mucked-up social "order" which originated in prehistoric times, a result of a conquering group, aka "ruling class" which maintains a dominant position (see Dominance as social construct). The privileged class takes advantage in several ways, one of which allows THEM to commit crimes against US without consequence, but the reverse situation is dealt with harshly.
Assuming there is an ecological crisis, Culture Dysphoria 2015
The historic task of cultural change is to resolve throughout the dominant culture the distortions of rationalist human/nature dualisms that deny our ecological embodiment and membership of the global ecological community.
In Reality, trends toward the Cosmopolitan Cluster are profoundly dissatisfying to conservative individuals. The CC issue is a case of 'the melting pot'. see also Cosmopolitan Cluster
The urban rural divide in the US and other complexities of polarization JUL.17,2019 | ToL
Indivi-DUAL
New idea: 'indivi', I'm going to premise means not divided, a singleton, and dual means two. That leads us to... a person is an undivided twosome, let's assume it means mind-body.
What exactly is the duality of human nature? | qra (trick question, see answer by Mike Brant, also good, Marcos Sheldon Padilla (per mind-body), see next link)
More about Mind-Body
UR2 CGPGrey 5 min
Dual Citizenship
list of, a good place to look for spies Editorial: The problem of dual citizenship 2014... “dual citizenship can present a security issue whether to permit access to classified information which affects recruitment, employment and assignments.” -US State Dept. In some cases, dual citizenship could disqualify an applicant for a sensitive position with the CIA or the State Department. (But not so for Israelis?)... List Israeli Dual Citizens in the US. 114th Congress; Bernie Sanders is on it 2016 | SotN
Binary Competition US vs THEM
Right vs Left (politics)
angels and demons 2 Class Social Hierarchy (Social Order Simplified)
Double Standard of Morality
... is a necessary adjunct to an US vs THEM ethic... because conflating US with THEM gives us cognitive dissonance; (social) equality is oblivion
The Dual Code of Morality
CHINA Strategy; moral dualities
Double Standard of Morality A necessary adjunct to US vs THEM ethic
social equality is oblivion
Bite the Hand that FED you; Ferried by kin-dness from Diaspora to Serendip, then They try to sink that "kin"ship
How the Jews Destroyed Germany | rjn
Jewish Declaration of War on Nazi Germany 1933
How The Jews Destroyed America | rjn
Nazi Jews- “Jew's own worst enemy!” 2007 Makow\rense
Cabalist Bankers Funded Hitler Via Wehrmacht Sep.2019 | svmls
Jewish Origins of Communism
For (Moses) Hess, the cardinal sin of the Judaic people was to abandon their heritage, while the cardinal objective of his Communism was to persuade all other people to abandon theirs…
Communism was the means for achieving Judaic supremacy over the gentiles. The gentiles were fated to be reduced to a faceless, deracinated mass. Capitalism was also capable of producing this effect, through free trade and the unfettered financialization of society, in which the management of money becomes a vast business in itself, and where the highest virtue, after obeisance to Judaism, is profit.
Israel’s New Ideology of Genocide 2018
ve’ahavta (“love your neighbor as yourself”) admonition to Goyim for regarding their Jewish neighbors; as for the Jews themselves, haba le-horgecha, hashkem le-horgo (“he who comes to kill you, rise early and kill him first” as told in 3 Little Pigs))
(wolf) attempts to trick third pig out of his (brick) house by asking to meet him at various places, but he is outwitted each time (3rd pig rises early, does the suggested task, and saves himself from being eaten)
Juice Dualities Juice, and DNA Melting Plot 1
back pages
A take-down of religious "morality" by a "believer"
To Serve the Greater Good, a Moral Philosophy for today++
Survey of Creativity and Destruction 1 Westciv
Garrett Hardin writes: "The essential characteristic of a tribe is that it should follow a double standard of morality -- one kind of behavior for in-group relations, another for out-group." -Wild Taboo "It is a tragic irony that discrimination has produced a species (homo sapiens) that now proposes to abandon the principle responsible for its rise to greatness."
Survey of Creativity and Destruction 8; Survival is Objective #1 in Evolution
Wild Taboo; Hardin/Masters
Competitive Exclusion Principle In the competition for living space and resources between two species (or two groups that occupy the same ecological niche), one will inevitably and inexorably eliminate the other. “In a finite universe – and the organisms of our world know no other – where the total number of organisms of both kinds cannot exceed a certain number… one species will necessarily replace the other species completely if the two species are “complete competitors, i.e., live the same kind of life.”
Historic Walls: Segregation and Security, defensive duo Disapproval of US.MX Border Barrier Design
Musical Duets (entertainment break from difficult study)
2x(Tico) no Fubá - Duo Siqueira Lima - guitar 4 Hands 3 min (includes brief encore) otra vez... 22x (Tico) Zequinha de Abreu arr. N Kossinskaya guitar quartet 4 min Anabel Montesinos & Marco Tamayo | Mozart, Rondo Alla Turca (w/audience) 3 min
Delibes, Lakmé - Duo des fleurs, Sabine Devieilhe & Marianne Crebassa, 3.8m views since Nov2017 4.5 min
Sun Quan The Emperor (Guzheng & Drum Ver.) 9.6m views since 2015 5 min
MUSA - Chandelier(Sia) & Wrecking Ball Mash - Guzheng and Zhongruan 3.3m views since 2015 3.5 min
Irish Senior Citizen Plays London Mall Piano... Then Magic Occurs; spontaneous Irish duet, Galway and Kerry 582k views since Jun.3.2019 (today is Jun.10) 7 min
Rasputin (Boney M) (viol/cello)- The Ayoub Sisters 3.4 min
A.Montesinos & M.Tamayo-Tres canciones de The Beatles-Stagione Internazionale di Chitarra Classica 9.9 min
Fool on the Hill; She's Leaving Home; Penny Lane;
Crazy - Patsy Cline Cover (Allison Young vocals, Josh Turner Guitar) 8.5k views 3.3 min
Dancing, an exercise in aesthetic, social duality
Grace on Ice Gabriella PAPADAKIS, Guillaume CIZERON, 2016 WC's music: Perfect- Ed Sheeran 4.3 min
A family exercise Derek and Julianne, music: "Unsteady" 2 min
Piano Duet, + 3 couples in traditional form Andrea & Matteo Bocelli, music: "Fall On Me" 2.6 min
Memorabilia (skips emotional intro) Jordan​ and​ ​Lindsay contemporary style, music: “Take Me Home” 1.3 min dance episode ends at 3:00
study notes
https://lorenzo-thinkingoutaloud.blogspot.com/2019/
https://simplicable.com/new/anti-competitive-practices
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=reality+dysphoria&atb=v81-4__&ia=web
submitted by acloudrift to todayplusplus [link] [comments]

Groestlcoin Release September 2018

Introduction

As always, the past 3 months since 22nd June have been crazy busy. The bears might still be around, but the show must go on and of course has not slowed the Groestlcoin development team in the slightest. Here’s a quick overview of what has already happened since the last release: - Integrated into the bitbns exchange, with the ability to buy Groestlcoin directly with the Indian Rupee. - Groestlcoin Rebrand Vote – Whilst there was much talk and push for a rebrand vote, the overall result was almost unanimously in favour of keeping our unique and conversation-starting name. With just 83 votes to Rebrand, and 2577 votes to No Rebrand. Thank you for all who voted, the funds raised are being used to fund ongoing hosting and development costs. - Integrated into the Cryptobridge exchange. Cryptobridge is a popular decentralised exchange where you always hold the private keys to your funds, only YOU have access to them. - Groestlcoin has been added to SimpleSwap – Groestlcoin can now be swapped with over 100 other cryptocurrencies, without signing up! - Groestlcoin has been added to UnoDax, one of the leading cryptocurrency exchanges in India, with TUSD, BTC and INR trading pairs. - Groestlcoin has been added to SwapLab.cc, where you can buy Groestlcoin using Bitcoin and over 50 other altcoins. Purchasing with VISA/Mastercard is coming VERY SOON. Discussed later: - Groestlcoin has been listed on #3 largest exchange in the world on volume, Huobi Global! More on this to come further on in the announcements. - Groestlcoin has been added to the Guarda Multi-Currency Wallet. - Groestlcoin has been added to Melis Multi-Device, Multi-Account, Multi-Platform, Multi-Signature advanced wallet! Already this list is far more than most other cryptocurrencies have achieved in the past 3 months. But this is just the tip of the iceberg of what has been developed.

What's been Happening?

GRSPay Released

We are so excited for this, that it has it's own separate reddit thread. Head over there now at https://www.reddit.com/groestlcoin/comments/9ikr5m/groestlcoin_releases_grspay/? to see more on this!
https://www.melis.io/assets/logo-navbar-4b6f0d372f15b2446d3fa4c68f346e4fb08ee113941186cee58fd6135f3f8b7d.svg

Melis Wallet

The the most advanced wallet for Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin and now Groestlcoin.
With Melis you have the complete control of your bitcoins and private keys, you can define spending limits policies and make use of two or more factors authentication. Melis is open source, published on GitHub.

How Melis Works?

You can create as many accounts as you want. An account is a part of your wallet that can be customised to your requirements. You can choose how many co-signers are required to spend funds. The accounts are completely independent and act like separate wallets from each other but can be accessed via the same details. A core feature of Melis is the ability to set a ‘primary’ device. With this you can set an account as ‘Secure’ so it is only viewable (and accessible at all) from the Primary device. You can have a savings account hidden from the outside world whilst also having your ‘spending’ funds available on the go. With Melis you can create a multi-signature account between N people, where up to N signatures are required to sign a transaction, choosing if any of those should be mandatory.
Core Features:
https://guarda.co/assets/images/1PGo4ID.svg?1537791124643

Guarda Wallet

Safer than ever! Desktop Light Wallet - Anonymous and fast!
With Guarda Multi-currency Desktop Light Wallet you don’t need to register. Guarda has no access to your private keys or funds. You can receive, send, store, buy and exchange cryptocurrencies in complete anonymity and safety. All these features are available on Linux, Windows or MacOS. Choose the one that suits you!
More info about Guarda wallet on www.guarda.co
https://holytransaction.com/images/logo.png

Integrated into HolyTransaction

What is HolyTransaction?

HolyTransaction gives users access to the crypto world with a universal cryptocurrency wallet and instant exchange.

Features

For more information, visit Holy Transaction here.
https://www.groestlcoin.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/next-grs-groestlcoin.jpg

Integrated into NEXT Wallet

What is NEXT?

NEXT is a modern, next-generation stylish open-source Desktop wallet.

Features

For more information, visit NextWallet here.
https://blockchainfinancial.com/mediaserve2018/09/admin-06143647-bcf_logo_vec_256x256.png

Integrated into Blockchain Financial

What is Blockchain Financial?

Blockchain Financial is a set of web based services for individuals and companies that want to make things happen with the Cryptocurrencies Ecosystem. - For those that don't know anything about cryptocurrencies, we offer tools that will let them receive, send and operate with an assortment of coins. - For those that are already riding the wave, we offer tools that will let them do all those things that they weren't able to do.

Blockchain Financials mission

We're not here to reinvent the wheel. We're here to make it run smoother for you, and we provide some of the most useful services you'll find on the internet, made in a way that is easy to understand and use on a daily basis. In short, we're a bunch of people that claim to be Crypto Evangelists. We strongly believe in cryptocurrencies, and our main promise is to push them up so more people get involved and take all the advantages they offer.

More information from Blockchain Financial

Back in 2014, the world was taken by storm when Facebook approved the first cryptocurrencies tipping apps. The first was for Dogecoin, and the second was for multiple coins.
The project was hosted on whitepuma.net, and persisted for almost two years, built up a massive user community and gave a home to Bitcoin, Litecoin, Dogecoin and dozens of other bitcoin-based altcoins.
After very active months, the tipping hype started to fade away. Then, the developers decided to jump into the next stage: bringing not only tipping, but also mining and a widget that could be embedded on websites to allow everyone to accept payments. Sadly, the work was never completed because the project started to require an unsustainable amount of resources. Then, in a painful decision, a shutdown was announced by December 2015.
A couple of months after whitepuma.net was closed, the source code was released by its creator as Open Source on GitHub. But it wasn't maintained.
Now, some of the original members of the dev and admin teams gathered up with a handful of the WhitePuma's elite users, and decided to make something good with the best pieces of the old source code. That, with fresh new ideas and the power of the BardCanvas engine, synthesized the core of Blockchain Financial.
More info about Blockchain Financial wallet on .
For more information, visit [Blockchain Financial](www.blockchainfinancial.com)
https://www.huobi.com/image/logo.aeb4723.svg

Groestlcoin Listed on Huobi

Who are Huobi?

Huobi was founded in China and is now based in Singapore, with offices in Hong Kong, South Korea, Japan and the North America, currently sitting #3 in volume on Coinmarketcap. Huobi is a great leap forward for our growing presence in Asia and we are very excited to be listed here!
You can find the official Huobi announcement here.

Groestlcoin Core v2.16.3 - Please Update ASAP

A new major Groestlcoin Core version 2.16.3 is now available for download which includes both a Denial of Service component and a critical inflation vulnerability, so it is recommended to upgrade to it if you are running a full Groestlcoin node or a local Groestlcoin Core wallet.
v2.16.3 is now the official release version of Groestlcoin Core. This is a new major version release with a very important security updates. It is recommended to upgrade to this version as soon as possible. Please stop running versions of Groestlcoin Core affected by CVE-2018-17144 ASAP: These are 2.13.3 and 2.16.0.
As a result in this, all exchanges and services have been asked to upgrade to this version, so please be patient if wallets go in to maintenance mode on these services.

What's new in version v2.16.3?

This is a major release of Groestlcoin Core fixing a Denial of Service component and a critical inflation vulnerability (https://nvd.nist.gov/vuln/detail/CVE-2018-17144) exploitable by miners that has been discovered in Groestlcoin Core version 2.13.3 and 2.16.0. It is recommended to upgrade to 2.16.3 as soon as possible. If you only occasionally run Groestlcoin Core, then it's not necessary to run out and upgrade it right this second. However, you should upgrade it before you next run it. If you know anyone who is running an older version, tell them to upgrade it ASAP. Stored funds are not at risk, and never were at risk. At this time we believe over half of the Groestlcoin hashrate has upgraded to patched nodes. We are unaware of any attempts to exploit this vulnerability. However, it still remains critical that affected users upgrade and apply the latest patches to ensure no possibility of large reorganizations, mining of invalid blocks, or acceptance of invalid transactions occurs.

The Technicals

In Groestlcoin Core 2.13.3, an optimization was added (Bitcoin Core PR #9049) which avoided a costly check during initial pre-relay block validation that multiple inputs within a single transaction did not spend the same input twice which was added in 2012 (Bitcoin Core PR #443). While the UTXO-updating logic has sufficient knowledge to check that such a condition is not violated in 2.13.3 it only did so in a sanity check assertion and not with full error handling (it did, however, fully handle this case twice in prior to 2.1.0.6). Thus, in Groestlcoin Core 2.13.3, any attempts to double-spend a transaction output within a single transaction inside of a block will result in an assertion failure and a crash, as was originally reported. In Groestlcoin Core 2.16.0, as a part of a larger redesign to simplify unspent transaction output tracking and correct a resource exhaustion attack the assertion was changed subtly. Instead of asserting that the output being marked spent was previously unspent, it only asserts that it exists. Thus, in Groestlcoin Core 2.16.0, any attempts to double-spend a transaction output within a single transaction inside of a block where the output being spent was created in the same block, the same assertion failure will occur. However, if the output being double-spent was created in a previous block, an entry will still remain in the CCoin map with the DIRTY flag set and having been marked as spent, resulting in no such assertion. This could allow a miner to inflate the supply of Groestlcoin as they would be then able to claim the value being spent twice.
Groestlcoin would like to publicly thank Reddit user u/Awemany for finding CVE-2018-17144 and reporting it (https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-core-dev/2018-Septembe000064.html). You deserve gratitude and appreciation from cryptoworld, and you have ours. If you want to support him for his work, please consider donating to him on his bitcoin cash address: bitcoincash:qr5yuq3q40u7mxwqz6xvamkfj8tg45wyus7fhqzug5
http://i.imgur.com/3YhyNZK.png

Groestlcoin Electrum-GRS 3.2.2 - Ledger & Trezor Edition

What is Electrum-GRS?
Electrum-GRS is a lightweight "thin client" groestlcoin wallet Windows, MacOS and Linux based on a client-server protocol. Its main advantages over the original Groestlcoin client include support for multi-signature wallets and not requiring the download of the entire block chain.

Changes:

http://i.imgur.com/3YhyNZK.png

Electrum-GRS Mobile Android

What is Electrum-GRS Mobile?

Electrum-grs is a lightweight "thin client" groestlcoin wallet Android based on a client-server protocol. Its main advantages over the original Groestlcoin client include support for multi-signature wallets and not requiring the download of the entire block chain.

Changes

Groestlcoin EasyVanity Released

Groestlcoin EasyVanity is a Windows app is built from the ground-up in C# and makes it easier than ever before to create your very own bespoke Groestlcoin address(es), even whilst not connected to the internet! You can even generate multiple keys with the same prefix and leave it on overnight whilst your CPU or GPU collects and stores these addresses locally.
If you're tired of the random, cryptic addresses generated by regular groestlcoin clients, then Groestlcoin EasyVanity is the right choice for you to create a more personalized address.

Features

• Ability to continue finding keys after first one is found • Includes warning on startup if connected to the internet • Ability to output keys to a text file (And shows button to open that directory) • Ability to make your match case sensitive (Where possible) • Show and hide the private key with a simple toggle switch, and copy the private key straight to your clipboard • Show full output of commands • Includes statistics whilst the application is running • Ability to choose between Processor (CPU) and Graphics Card (GPU) • Automatically detects 32 or 64 bit systems • Features both a Light and Dark Material Design inspired Themes • EasyVanity's search is probabilistic, and the amount of time required to find a given pattern depends on how complex the pattern is, the speed of your computer, and whether you get lucky. • EasyVanity includes components to perform address searching on your CPU (vanitygen) and your OpenCL-compatible GPU (oclvanitygen). Both can be built from source, and both are included in the Windows binary package. • Prefixes are exact strings that must appear at the beginning of the address. When searching for prefixes, Easyvanity will ensure that the prefix is possible, and will provide a difficulty estimate. • The percentage displayed just shows how probable it is that a match would be found in the session so far. If it finds your address with 5% on the display, you are extremely lucky. If it finds your address with 92% on the display, you are unlucky. If you stop EasyVanity with 90% on the display, restart it, and it finds your address with 2% on the display, your first session was unlucky, but your second session was lucky. • EasyVanity uses the OpenSSL random number generator. This is the same RNG used by groestlcoin and a good number of HTTPS servers. It is regarded as well-scrutinized. Guessing the private key of an address found by EasyVanity will be no easier than guessing a private key created by groestlcoin itself. • To speed up address generation, EasyVanity uses the RNG to choose a private key, and literally increments the private key in a loop searching for a match. As long as the starting point is not disclosed, if a match is found, the private key will not be any easier to guess than if every private key tested were taken from the RNG. EasyVanity will also reload the private key from the RNG after 10,000,000 unsuccessful searches (100M for oclvanitygen), or when a match is found and multiple patterns are being searched for. • Free software - MIT. Anyone can audit the code. • Written in C# - The code is short, and easy to review.

Groestlcoin Sentinel (Android & Blackberry) – Mainnet + Testnet

What is Sentinel?

Groestlcoin Sentinel is the easiest and fastest way to track/receive/watch payments in your offline Groestlcoin Wallets. Groestlcoin Sentinel is compatible with any standard Groestlcoin address, BIP44 XPUB (Extended Public Key) BIP49 YPUB and BIP84 ZPUB
Groestlcoin Sentinel is a great solution for anyone who wants the convenience and utility of a hot wallet for receiving payments directly into their cold storage (or hardware wallets). Sentinel accepts XPUB's, YPUB'S, ZPUB's and individual Groestlcoin address. Once added you will be able to view balances, view transactions, and (in the case of XPUB's, YPUB's and ZPUB's) deterministically generate addresses for that particular wallet.

What's New?

The P2SH paperwallet supports creating P2SH paperwallets in bulk, keypair generation with QR codes and sweeping tool. Groestlcoin believes strongly in privacy, the live version does not collect and store IP or transaction data.
Changes
Features
The BECH32 paperwallet supports creating BECH32 paperwallets in bulk, keypair generation with QR codes and sweeping tool. Groestlcoin believes strongly in privacy, the live version does not collect and store IP or transaction data.
Features
![WebWallet](https://i.imgur.com/Z2oj7bj.png)

Groestlcoin Web Wallet Update 1.4

What is Groestlcoin Web Wallet?
Groestlcoin Webwallet is an open source, multisignature, HD Wallet and more! Webwallet is a a open source browser based Groestlcoin webwallet.
Webwallet is a playground for Groestlcoin in javascript to experiment with. It supports multisig, OP_HODL, RBF and many more. Groestlcoin believes strongly in privacy, the live version does not collect and store IP or transaction data.
Changes:
submitted by Yokomoko_Saleen to groestlcoin [link] [comments]

Against Buying Low: A Meditation On Our Favorite Fantasy Tactic, Which Might Not Actually Work

Warning: Novel-length post ahead.
It’s that time of the season when this forum—along with much of the fantasy basketball punditry across the web—is fixated on buying low. It seems like the majority of threads here, and columns across the fantasy basketball web, are focused on identifying good buy low candidates.
Which, to me, begged the question: does buying low actually work? And the answer was: I had no fucking idea. Sure, there was a wealth of anecdotal evidence, but that could lead you in very different directions, depending upon whether you had bought low last year on Danny Green, or on Chris Paul. There was no metric of how effective a strategy it is on the whole.
So I set out to create one.
There’s a lot of uncertainty involved in buying low on players, and so by necessity we should be making probabilistic predictions: talking in terms of the odds that something will happen, rather than a binary will-it-or-won’t-it position. Anyone who says “Player X will certainly bounce back from their slow start” or “Player Y certainly won’t” is talking out of their ass. The truth is, we can’t say for sure: NBA statistics are the product of a complex system, not quite as complex as, say, the weather, but complex nonetheless. I can state with a pretty high degree of confidence that Kawhi Leonard will post top 10 value over the rest of the season (much like a meteorologist can estimate with pretty high confidence what the high temperature will be tomorrow). But ask a meteorologist what the high temperature will be on January 20th, or ask me whether Paul Millsap will post top 25 value the rest of the season, and now neither of us is quite so confident. The meteorologist would be hard pressed to do better than just guessing the average January 20th temperature from the last 20 years. And I’d probably be best off trying to figure out guys similar to Paul Millsap who have started slow, and asking what percentage of them ended up posting top 25 value.
Now, of course I am not suggesting that a statistical model could give you all of the information you need to determine whether it’s a good idea to buy low on someone. Things like team situation, minutes, injury history, etc. matter of course, and there’s no easy way to build a statistical model to account for them. But it’s still essential that we have some sort of model to give us an overall understanding of how effective buying low is. When we’re thinking about buying low, we tend to start with the “inside view” (whether a guy’s coach likes him; whether he’s spending extra time working on his FT shooting; whether he’s in a contract year), but in reality, we should be looking first at the “outside view:” what % of all buy low candidates end up getting their shit together? That number should be our jumping-off point, and then, when we have it, we can adjust it for situation-specific info like their minutes, their team situation, etc. If we start by looking at the inside view, we can fool ourselves into thinking: “Everything’s set up for this guy to succeed; there’s probably a 90% chance he bounces back this year.” When, in reality, that’s probably a pretty terrible estimate, and the outside view shows us why.
[A note on the data (feel free to skip this): I have taken players who have started slow over the first 32 days of the previous 3 seasons (2013-14, 2014-15, and 2015-16). These are “struggling” players. In each year, I have limited the data set to players who were in the top 75 in final average value the previous year, per bbm, and I define “struggling” players as those who are underperforming their previous year’s ranking by at least (5 x round #). So if a player finished 32nd the year before, they would need to be at 47th (32 + [5 x 3]) or lower over the first 32 days of the following season in order to qualify as “struggling.” Of course, these distinctions are, to an extent, arbitrary, and you could slice the data somewhat differently (though I think the general principle would still hold). My rationale for cutting off the pool at top 75: players below that level generally aren’t “buy low” candidates, because their owners tend to cut them if they’re really struggling early in the season. As for determining what qualifies someone as “struggling,” I wanted to capture the fact that a 1st round pick who slides 10 spots is a much bigger disaster than a 6th round pick who slides 10 spots. I don’t think the method I came up with is perfect, but it does at least have a reasonably even distribution of “struggling” players in each round. Also, I tossed out anyone who played fewer than 50 games in their prior full season, or fewer than 10 games over their “struggling” month. I wanted this to reflect guys who are basically healthy; buying low on injured players is a whole other can of worms.]
There are 78 “struggling” starts over these 3 seasons. (And some guys lay claim to multiple slow starts; looking at you, Serge Ibaka.) In looking at end results, I have grouped players into 5 categories. Category 1 encompasses players who, for the remainder of the season, actually outperform the value they put up the previous year. So if a guy was ranked 30th in 2014-15, and then slides to 60th in the first month of 2015-16, but then posts 25th-ranked value for the rest of 2015-16, he’s in Category 1. A player in Category 2 did not match his value from the previous year, but came close enough to it over the rest of the season that he wouldn’t qualify as “struggling,” per the definition above. Players in Category 3 qualified as “not struggling” under a less stringent definition: 10 x round #, instead of 5 x round #. Category 4 encompasses players who improved upon their terrible start, but didn’t play well enough to qualify for Categories 1, 2, or 3. So a player who ranked 40th the year before, and then 120th over the first month of the season, and then 100th over the rest of the season, would fall into Category 4. Players in Category 5 went on to perform even worse for the rest of the season than they did in the first month.
In more basic terms, you can think of it like this: Buying low on a Category 1 player is an Excellent Decision, buying low on a Category 2 player a Good Decision, buying low on a Category 3 player a Neutral Decision, buying low on a Category 4 player a Bad Decision, and buying low on a Category 5 player is a Terrible Decision. So generally speaking, in a reasonably competitive league, in order for a buy low trade to actually help your team, you’ll need the guy you receive to fall into either Category 1 or Category 2.
[Aside: There’s no way for me to know how intelligent the other managers in your league are; of course, if you can get a struggling guy who was drafted in the 2nd round for waiver wire fodder, then go forth (and you don’t need this guide). But in my experience it’s usually hard to buy really low on medium-to-high draft picks. You can cite the sunk cost fallacy all you want, but on some level, owners’ aversion to selling low makes sense; your objective should always be to win your league, and if you sell a guy that you took in the 2nd round for someone whose ceiling is 6th round value, you may have improved the floor of your overall team, but you’ve almost certainly made yourself less likely to come in 1st than if you just held onto your 2nd round pick and prayed.]
So let’s take a look at the data. What percentage of struggling guys end up falling into each of our 5 categories?
The breakdown isn’t very encouraging:
Category # of Players
1 15
2 20
3 10
4 11
5 22
http://imgur.com/a/8yCKy
If you buy low on a random player, the single most likely outcome of these 5 is that he’s going to go on to play even worse than the month of games that made him a buy low candidate in the first place. There’s a 42.3% chance that buying low on him is going to be a Bad Decision or a Terrible Decision, and a 44.8% chance, roughly comparable, that it’s going to be a Good Decision or an Excellent Decision. And given the sort of value you usually have to give up to buy low, it’s likely that the Category 4 and 5 players are going to hurt you more than the Category 1 and 2 players are going to help you. (I.e., it’s unusual for someone who is top 75 to begin with, and then sucks for a month, to suddenly get it together and start playing significantly better than their baseline ability. But it’s not that unusual for someone to suck for a month, and then continue sucking for the next 4 months.)
“Okay,” you might say, “Buying low in aggregate isn’t an amazing idea, but given my fantasy basketball knowledge, I can determine which players are going to be Category 1 and Category 2 guys, rather than just buying low at random.”
This was basically what I believed about myself. So I thought about which factors might lead me to think a single particular player was a good “buy low” candidate. The first thing that came to mind was the round they would have been picked in, based off of value the previous year. Surely 1st and 2nd round picks are safer investments, more likely to sniff 1st or 2nd round value despite their slow starts than a 6th round pick would be likely to approach 6th round value if he starts out badly. Right?
Well, basically, no.
If you look at the breakdown, higher-round slow starters are just as likely to flame out as their lower-round counterparts. And they aren’t any more likely to exceed their value from the previous year, either.
Round Category 1 Category 2 Category 3 Category 4 Category 5
1 2 6 0 3 4
2 3 6 1 2 4
3 3 2 4 3 5
4 2 2 2 3 4
5 3 2 1 0 1
6-7 2 2 2 0 4
Round Category 1 Category 2 Category 3 Category 4 Category 5
1-3 8 14 5 8 13
4-7 7 6 5 3 9
Then I scrutinized the list of high-ranking players, and wondered if there was a better indicator than round value to demonstrate someone’s consistency or safety as a pick. After all, Danny Green posted 2nd round value in 2014-15, but no one was drafting him in the 2nd round in 2015-16. So how about sorting guys by their usage rates? Usage is a pretty solid indicator of how involved a player is in his team’s offense. It stands to reason that someone like LeBron, who has a sky-high usage every year, is a safer selection, relative to where he’s drafted, than someone like Danny Green, who touches the ball less and thus is more vulnerable if his team’s tactics evolve (like, say, to accommodate the arrival of LaMarcus Aldridge).
So I sorted the players in my data set into 3 categories: High Usage (someone with a usage rate above 26.5 in the full previous season); Medium Usage (someone with a usage rate between 20 and 26.5 in the full previous season); and Low Usage (someone with a usage rate under 20 in the full previous season).
Surprisingly, the correlation isn’t especially strong here either. It’s true that on the whole, high usage players are somewhat safer bets, and are less likely to end up in true disaster territory (Category 5) than low usage players, with the middle-usage guys falling in the middle. But it’s not a hugely strong correlation, and it’s also true that low usage players are more likely to fall into Category 1 than high usage players are.
Usage Category 1 Category 2 Category 3 Category 4 Category 5
High 5 9 1 5 4
Medium 2 9 6 2 8
Low 8 2 3 4 10
http://imgur.com/a/9bTFv http://imgur.com/a/ltLJT http://imgur.com/a/XS6IE
Next, I wondered whether position might be the better metric to look at. Sure, some of the benefits and drawbacks of position are captured by usage (with Cs and SGs tending to have lower usage rates than PGs and SFs), but perhaps there were other pieces of the puzzle that usage didn’t capture. Maybe centers, due to higher risk of injury and a more dramatic dropoff late in their careers, were at greater risk of not recovering from a slow start. Maybe point guards were more insulated due to their central role in a team’s offense.
But, running the numbers, there wasn’t much to glean here either. Perhaps big men are slightly riskier buy low candidates, but the upside seems to be greater as well.
Position Category 1 Category 2 Category 3 Category 4 Category 5
PG 2 5 2 3 3
SG 1 5 1 2 5
SF 4 3 2 2 3
PF 3 3 2 1 5
C 4 4 3 3 6
Then I looked at the fantasy category in which each buy low candidate was struggling the most. Maybe guys who start the year in a shooting slump are more likely to bounce back than guys who see a reduction in rebounds, for instance. I had expected that FG% would be the most common category here, but I was shocked by just how common it was. 34 out of 78 players (43.6% of them) had a greater dropoff in FG% than in any other category. The other very popular category was steals, which was the biggest problem for 13/78 players (16.7%).
Based on the data I’ve got here, there’s no category that seems to clearly suggest whether a player is a good buy low candidate. Even dropoffs in points and rebounds, which you would think would be indicators that a player has entered a less favorable team situation, don’t tell us much about how they’re likely to perform moving forward (though the sample is, admittedly, limited). This suggests that even players whose situations change dramatically usually find ways to make themselves useful from a fantasy perspective, whether it’s improving their efficiency (FG% and TOs) or focusing more on defensive stats. A dropoff in 3PT is probably the most concerning based on this data, but with just 6 players in that category, I’d be wary of drawing too firm a conclusion from that. On the whole, the category a player struggles in isn’t especially helpful in projecting their performance moving forward.
Fantasy Cat Category 1 Category 2 Category 3 Category 4 Category 5
3PT 1 1 0 1 3
AST 1 0 0 0 0
BLK 4 0 1 0 1
FG 6 11 3 4 10
FT 2 0 1 3 0
PTS 0 4 1 1 1
REB 0 1 1 1 0
STL 1 3 3 1 5
TO 0 0 0 0 2
So what about age? Finally, here, a pattern begins to emerge:
Age Category 1 Category 2 Category 3 Category 4 Category 5
24 and under 2 4 0 2 0
25 5 6 0 1 3
26-28 2 1 4 3 7
29-30 5 6 3 3 4
31 and above 1 3 3 2 8
Age Category 1 Category 2 Category 3 Category 4 Category 5
25 and under 7 10 0 3 3
26 and older 8 10 10 8 19
http://imgur.com/a/kZj1u
At first glance, this surprised me. Certainly, I expected there to be a significant dropoff as players aged into their 30’s, as this data includes guys from the Garnett/Pierce/Nowitzki generation as they gradually slipped from reliable early round players, to middle-rounders, to scrubs. So that piece of the aging curve (with the brutal track record for players 31+) is pretty much exactly what I expected.
It’s the younger half of the aging curve that initially confused me. I think the traditional understanding is that athletes in many sports, including basketball, tend to peak statistically around the age of 26-28. So I had thought that we would see the best buy low options in that age range. Instead, it skews significantly younger, with age 25 appearing to be the cutoff: guys 25 and younger are, on the whole, much stronger buy low candidates, and then once they hit 26, it’s no longer a good idea to buy low on them.
But the more I thought about it, the more this made sense. After all, when we talk about guys peaking in the 26-28 range, we’re talking about their absolute performance, whereas in fantasy we’re more concerned with their performance relative to the previous year, and hence relative to where they were likely to be drafted. And players almost always make the biggest gains in fantasy value between the ages of 22 and 25. Now, of course, some of this expectation of improvement is baked into guys’ average draft positions; players like Towns and Porzingis are going to be drafted above where they finished the previous year on the expectation that they will develop and improve. But it seems like this assumption of improvement often goes out the window when a young guy starts slow; people are often willing to cut the cord on underperforming young guys, whether due to a fear of the “sophomore slump” or a suspicion that, given their limited NBA track records, they may just not be good enough yet to justify their high ADP (see, for example, all of the people panicking about Towns’s somewhat slow start).
In my experience, people seem to be more willing to unload an underperforming young player at a reasonable price, than they would be willing to unload an underperforming 30-year-old with a solid fantasy track record of many years. But they shouldn’t be: buying low on young players is not only higher-upside, it’s also, surprisingly, a safer bet than buying low on veterans, or even buying low on guys in the 26-28 range, which I would have thought to be the safest age range of all.
So if there’s one thing you should look at when you consider buying low, it’s the dude’s birthday.
Now, is there an appropriate time for buying low on guys older than 25? Of course. It’s important not to lose sight of the fact that (for me, at least, and I suspect for many other players) fantasy sports are an all-or-nothing exercise, e.g., you’d rather give yourself a chance of coming in 1st and a chance of coming in 8th, instead of locking in a 4th place finish. So if your team is struggling, it makes sense to pursue volatile, high-risk-high-reward strategies. And that’s exactly what buying low is.
But on the whole, buying low is not an efficient way of generating value. Trades rarely are. The most reliable way to generate value is to draft well; then, trades should be used primarily to solidify punting strategies, not to generate value. Sure, occasionally you’ll strike it hot with a random buy low candidate, but overall, it’s not a reliable way to improve one’s team. Yes, if your team is already bad, you might as well leverage a high-risk strategy and give it a shot, but “buying low” is often touted as THE essential fantasy basketball strategy, and there’s not a lot of evidence to support that.
submitted by Rodekio to fantasybball [link] [comments]

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